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#1
10-19-2007, 07:07 AM
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Re: Back to Basics - EV here? QQ Preflop
Hey guys I'm in procrastination mode so I ran some numbers.
Getting 1.24-to-1 on your money, you need > 44.6% to call. Some possibilities: A) If he does this with JJ+ and AK+ your equity = 47.5%, making this a slightly +EV call. B) If he does this with JJ+ 100% of the time and AK (suited or offsuit) a third of the time, your equity ~ 43.8% in this spot, and so you should fold. C) If he just spews such that his range = 99+ and AK+ then you MUST call b/c your equity = 55.7%. If you throw in AQs sometimes, the call becomes easier. D) If he always does this with AA-KK, with QQ-JJ he does it half the time, and with AK he only does this a third of the time, your equity = 38% and thus you should fold. So, in general, if he a normal solid player getting it in here is probably pretty bad, but if you’ve seen him spew off stacks in weird spots like this with TT or AQs, then you can call. If you’re not sure, it might be best to just fold and wait for a better spot. IOW, it depends on what hands you think he is doing this with. 
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#2
10-19-2007, 09:04 AM
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Re: Back to Basics - EV here? QQ Preflop
JJ shouldnt be in UTG's range.
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#3
10-19-2007, 02:54 PM
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Re: Back to Basics - EV here? QQ Preflop
Thank you for all the replies. I believe that I have a much better grasp on when to call this bet and when to fold now. I'll be leaning towards fold, with recent history needed to make a call here.
soda
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#5
10-22-2007, 04:37 AM
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Re: Back to Basics - EV here? QQ Preflop
[ QUOTE ]
AK really domintes his range here. but you are 150BB's deep, so i would probably fold. snapcall for 100BB's though [/ QUOTE ] Not sure I'm grasping the rationale for this 150BB/100BB argument. Anyone care to elaborate?
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#6
10-22-2007, 04:40 AM
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Re: Back to Basics - EV here? QQ Preflop
fold, although i'd have to pysically restrain myself from the call button untill the time ran out.
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#7
10-22-2007, 04:51 AM
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Re: Back to Basics - EV here? QQ Preflop
[ QUOTE ]
fold, although i'd have to pysically restrain myself from the call button untill the time ran out. [/ QUOTE ] about my thoughts here
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#8
10-22-2007, 04:54 AM
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Re: Back to Basics - EV here? QQ Preflop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] AK really domintes his range here. but you are 150BB's deep, so i would probably fold. snapcall for 100BB's though [/ QUOTE ] Not sure I'm grasping the rationale for this 150BB/100BB argument. Anyone care to elaborate? [/ QUOTE ] its too much monies to call 150bb cuz our odds are worse and he's less likely to just shove that deep with crap
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#10
10-22-2007, 04:54 AM
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Re: Back to Basics - EV here? QQ Preflop
[ QUOTE ]
Hey guys I'm in procrastination mode so I ran some numbers. Getting 1.24-to-1 on your money, you need > 44.6% to call. Some possibilities: A) If he does this with JJ+ and AK+ your equity = 47.5%, making this a slightly +EV call. B) If he does this with JJ+ 100% of the time and AK (suited or offsuit) a third of the time, your equity ~ 43.8% in this spot, and so you should fold. C) If he just spews such that his range = 99+ and AK+ then you MUST call b/c your equity = 55.7%. If you throw in AQs sometimes, the call becomes easier. D) If he always does this with AA-KK, with QQ-JJ he does it half the time, and with AK he only does this a third of the time, your equity = 38% and thus you should fold. So, in general, if he a normal solid player getting it in here is probably pretty bad, but if you’ve seen him spew off stacks in weird spots like this with TT or AQs, then you can call. If you’re not sure, it might be best to just fold and wait for a better spot. IOW, it depends on what hands you think he is doing this with. [/ QUOTE ] /end thread IMO
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