Top set should fold?

[mg0698]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com
Villan is 11/7/3 through 69 hands
Button ($2.60)
SB ($9.90)
BB ($10.15)
UTG ($10.65)
MP ($10.25)
Hero ($20.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $0.3</font>, Hero calls $0.30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20.

Flop: ($1.20) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.3</font>, BB calls $0.30, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.2</font>, SB folds, BB calls $0.90.

Turn: ($3.90) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $8.65 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $12.55
Any opinion guys will be appreciated

[Nick C]

Well, that sucks, but you're not even close to having the odds if he has the flush. And he did play the flop like he was drawing (although it could've been a stubborn 7h7c or 6c5c instead, I know).

Anyway, the fold seems fine to me.

Edit: I just now noticed Villain's stats, and this seems like one of those rare spots where if you do call, you're hoping Villain was slowplaying on the flop and has a set (and then was pissed about the turn card).

[mg0698]

yea i had a feeling he had a set also but didn't call

[kroeliewoelie]

I like a bigger raise on the flop. I.e. a potsize one, that is to 1.80. In that case the pot would have been bigger and your odds would be somewhat better.

On top of that I think I call here. Who openshoves an obvious flush? I expect to see a set here more often.

[Nick C]

Now that I've noticed Villain's stats, I'm going to take another stab at this. First off, the preflop raise was smallish, and there were two calls in front of BB. Nevertheless, based on our 69-hand sample, he's pretty tight in to begin with.

So let's say he'll play any PP, any suited broadways, and any suited zero-gappers. That gives him 9 flush combos, and 6 reasonable set combos. Meanwhile, he might have 3-bet AhKh or AhQh preflop, but at the same time I'm not so sure we should have given Villain as tight of a suited range as I did.

Still, you have by far the better of the outs versus a flush/set range, and I'm not sure we should rule out, say, AhTs either. 75s may be a concern, but, basically, this is now looking like a slightly profitable call to me, and it helps too that Villain might not be in such a hurry to get his money in with a big flush. So while I probably didn't place enough AhXh hands in Villain's range on the flop, there's a good chance he wouldn't have open-pushed those AhXh hands on the turn, suggesting we should discount them.

[teh_minbet_pokr]

raise more on flop, hand plays a lot easier

[mephisto]

agree with others, raise more on the flop. Fold that donk turn push, just ain't worth it.

[ukcoolcat]

in general i agree with the concensus, but, did you observe any hands that villain played previously? if so, what was his holding/hand range? pp, AXs, sc etc? then you can make a clearer decision based on past hands villain played and how he played them.

[DockDD]

Raise more on flop. You have two guys who appear to like their hands and you have the nuts.

Call turn. Villian has 66 here often enough. Plus you'll get to hear about how Stars is rigged, how you suck for making the call since it was obvious he had the flush, etc. He's been waiting hours for one of his PPs to hit a set....

[corsakh]

Your nuts to fold this.