$50 check my FE

[bozzer]

Right i just solved this to get the general solution, but i'm not sure it's right.

assumption 1: he calls a 3flush river with the same frequency that he calls my shove on the turn. (not true but massively simplifying)

assumption 2: i can't win the hand unless i hit a flush.

assumption 3: i never bluff the river if i miss (not true lol).

if someone could check this i'd be very happy..

x = calling frequency

EV of checking = [0.2((x*$10)+$15)] = 2x + 3

EV of shoving = x[(0.2*$35)-$10] + (1-x)*$15 = -3x + 15 - 15x
EV of shoving = 5 - 6x


grapically:




this suggests that shoving and checking have equal value at a calling frequency of 25% - if he calls more than that and checking has more value.

the thing that concerns me is that shoving is profitable until he calls 85% of the time. if someone could check this using whatever method they normally use to check FE that would be really awesome.

[checktheriver]

Yeah there's a tiny mistake in the shove EV.
[ QUOTE ]
EV of shoving = x[(0.2*$35)-$10] + (1-x)*$15 = -3x + 15 - 15x

[/ QUOTE ]

It's actually EV of shoving = x[(0.2*$25)-$10] + (1-x)*$15 = 15-20x.

So a shove is +EV if he folds at least 25% of the time, and is better than checking if x < 12/22 ~ 55%, ie if he folds at least 45%.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
So a shove is +EV if he folds at least 25% of the time, and is better than checking if x < 12/22 ~ 55%, ie if he folds at least 45%.

[/ QUOTE ]

no chance imo.

[Profish2285]

I really think there is no way he is folding here almost 1/2 the time. Nothing has changed from the flop to the turn from villain's perspective and he is short stacked on top of that.

[Antinome]

x=call %

0=x[(his equity=~.75)($you lose by calling=-10.10)+(your equity=~.25)($you win=24.6)]+(1-x)[24.6]

0=x[-7.575+6.15]+24.6-24.6x

0=-1.425x+24.6-24.6x

26.025x=24.6

x=24.6/26.025

x=.93

he has to call >93% to make shoving -EV. It depends some on what you think his equity when he calls is, but shoving can't be bad.

[Unknown Soldier]

check

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
check

[/ QUOTE ]

Click here

[kolotoure]

Why are we assuming all of our outs are good? and what hands call flop and fold this turn

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So a shove is +EV if he folds at least 25% of the time, and is better than checking if x < 12/22 ~ 55%, ie if he folds at least 45%.

[/ QUOTE ]

no chance imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree, he's so short, he prob won't fold JJ here just because he wants to gamble probably.. just check and stack him on the river.

[members_only]

[ QUOTE ]
and what hands call flop and fold this turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Gutshots, the odd stubborn pp and maybe sometimes A5 and below

Prob not the required 45% given OP's assumptions