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#1
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National Championship
Here is what a recent article said concerning the Buckeyes:
• No. 1 Ohio State (7-0): Beating Washington and Purdue was nice, but the Buckeyes haven't exactly defeated a top-tier opponent. Also helping Ohio State's cause is that it competes in a weak Big Ten conference. Look for Tressel's squad to improve to 11-0 by beating Penn State on the road and Michigan State, Wisconsin and Illinois. A regular-season finale at Michigan could knock them out of the national title game. Ohio State owns three straight victories over the Wolverines Is this right? In high school I would read sports articles and SI like a textbook, but now I am beginning to wonder wtf sports writers studied in college or if they can even do research properly. Weak Big Ten conference? Visiting Happy Valley? At Michigan to end the Season? The Illini look good right? I was looking at the top 5 college teams and their remaining schedules and that OSU had one of the toughest. Am I crazy and just way off here? Does anyone agree with this guy that OSU has a free pass to an undefeated season |
#2
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Re: National Championship
It's sort of going around in circles every time this comes up but here goes...
Ohio State does not have an easy schedule. Hawaii has an easy schedule. But when you compare Ohio State's schedule to LSU's schedule, then it looks easy. I'd be more impressed with a 12-1 LSU than a 12-0 Ohio State, but the BCS would always favor Ohio State in that scenario. |
#3
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Re: National Championship
I happen to agree with the article…or at the very least its consistency. If the big ten is as weak as he contends (which I happen to agree with to some extent) than OSU is looking at a fairly weak road (at least relative to other possible roads) to an undefeated season. Wisconsin stinks (can they cover a game?) Similarly, MSU is a game they should win. Illinois will be tough, as will Penn State on the road, but not games were you DON’T expect/require OSU to win. At Michigan is going to be very, very tough, OSU will still be favorites (I am really looking forward to this game) and the game is, once again, easily winnable. Honestly, I say there is about a 30% chance that the Buckeyes play in the national championship game (a lot greater chance than most teams can say).
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#4
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Re: National Championship
I agree that LSU has the toughest remaining out of the top 5 (OSU, USF, BC, LSU, OU), but isn't OSU a close second?
Also, I do agree in that LSU will lose one more game. Also, BC and USF will lose at least once and OU will compete for the title. Agree? |
#5
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Re: National Championship
I think USF has the best chance of all the undefeateds to remain that way. That would be insane if they were #1.
Even more funny would be the fact that they would be a huge underdog to a 1-loss LSU. |
#6
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Re: National Championship
[ QUOTE ]
I think USF has the best chance of all the undefeateds to remain that way. That would be insane if they were #1. Even more funny would be the fact that they would be a huge underdog to a 1-loss LSU. [/ QUOTE ] Texas was 8-pt dog to USC. Fla was 8.5 dog to Ohio. Who cares - I only care if the public moves the line too far. I hope USF gets there and is an eleventy-billion pt dog so I can rack up the +++++EV bets again. |
#7
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Re: National Championship
here's the thing, outside of the midwest the Big11Ten will always be called weak unless Ohio State and Michigan are absolutely killing teams. The perception is moronic. For instance, I heard so much about last year's big11ten being good because Wis, Mich, and tOSU were all top10 at one point. That's just garbage. The only reason those teams were top10 is because the conference really sucked last year, so those teams didn't have competitive games. This year's big11ten is far stronger than last year.
OK...Michigan is worse (defensively, but offense is still gangbusters) Wisconsin is same Penn St is better Indiana is better Purdue is better Illinois is better Iowa is the same Northwestern is better Michigan State is better Minnesota is worse The conference is much stronger than last year. The next level of this is that teams are not as likely to have a great record as the conference will cannabilize itself. Even though OSU will be favored to win those games, they'll be an underdog to go undefeated. That's what happens when a team has to play competitive opponents week after week. The final four game stretch is one of the most brutal 4 game stretches for any team this year. Most sportswriters round up to 1 or down to 0 when it comes to probability. It's a terrible mistake. I don't know how anyone can just put 'W's up for a team after watching NCAAF this year |
#8
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Re: National Championship
[ QUOTE ]
Wisconsin is same [/ QUOTE ] Are you serious? I think Wisconsin is way down from last year. The winner of the SEC title game should get an auto bid to the BCS national championship game. That conference is that much better than anyother. |
#9
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Re: National Championship
If South Florida wins out, they're ~90% to reach the championship. First off, the chances that there even are two other undefeateds at the end of the season are pretty slim. Ohio State's about 40-50% to win out and no one else is even close. Kansas, Arizona State, and BC probably aren't 50% combined.
Second, I'm not so sure that BC or Kansas gets in over USF. USF's tougher schedule means that they have at least 2nd in the computer rankings pretty much locked up. If USF's a full spot ahead of BC in the computer rankings, then they only need for more than 25% of the pollsters to put them ahead of BC to get in. With Rutgers, Cincy, and Louisville on the schedule, USF should get at least the same boost that BC gets for playing VT twice, Clemson, and Maryland. If there are 3 undefeateds at the end of the season, I think that USF's still > 50% to play for the title. |
#10
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Re: National Championship
the top 5 (OSU, USF, BC, LSU, OU)
I had some time after lunch today and I think that this year its going to be another disputed BCS title game. Besides OU, who of the remaing 4 will not lose a game? Maybe LSU. I strongly feel USF will lose at least once, and I'm confident OSU and BC will fall at least once. South Carolina will at least lose once, definately to Fla. Kentucky has one hell of a final 4 games. Arizona State still has Oregon and USC left to play. I personally feel like West Virginia needs to be strongly considered as a potential threat for the national title. Have you guys heard of the argument of "losing at the right time"? I think if WVU wins handily and can get by Louiville and Cincy they might be able to LSU, who I think might lose one more time. Anyway, the final conclusion is avoid betting these future props cause its gonna be a mess. Just enjoy the games at a careful distance! |
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