88 in SB.... squeeze?

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like raising. If I had a note that the cold caller was a total donk, than maybe. Otherwise I set mine.

[/ QUOTE ]
You know what I don't like about set mining here? It is very possible that either villain could move in on a missed flop with either 77 or AK or a draw and you could be folding a winning hand. That would be a collossal error.

When I set mine, I will use the fit/fold method most of the time. In this situation however, folding a missed set, which still could be the best hand at the moment, might be a large enough error to cost you the tournament.

[TheFoxNL]

maybe but you can make more by raising here picking up the dead money shoving here forces both villains to decide if they wanna risk their stack against a solid player that only showed down aces and kings

FLAT calling here is way too passive
if youre image is super loose aggressive i would still raise
but then youre argument for flatting is more to use
But
considering youre image and bigger stack this such an easy Raise/shove

[MJBuddy]

[ QUOTE ]
maybe but you can make more by raising here picking up the dead money shoving here forces both villains to decide if they wanna risk their stack against a solid player that only showed down aces and kings

FLAT calling here is way too passive
if youre image is super loose aggressive i would still raise
but then youre argument for flatting is more to use
But
considering youre image and bigger stack this such an easy Raise/shove

[/ QUOTE ]

If you raise here without jamming, you're a moron. I've said it twice, and evidence as to why it's a donk move has been repeated to no avail throughout this thread. You gain absolutely nothing and lose FE. Calling is +EV. That's a fact. It's higher EV IF AND ONLY IF you think the players are too stubborn/tight and will call along with a jam. If less of a +EV situation IF AND ONLY IF you have a strong chance to fold out the initial raiser.

Typically if I want to play in a hand with a pot >20% of my effective stack, I jam as a default.

[Jesuitical]

It's not like 88 ONLY has set value, either. There are rag flops you can CRAI (or call all-in, whatever) if villain's C-betting almost all of his range.

[tomek322]

[ QUOTE ]
In this situation however, folding a missed set, which still could be the best hand at the moment, might be a large enough error to cost you the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

this statement is so retarded i'm not sure where to begin. There is probably 300+ people left. You really this that playing this one hand has that much significance in your overall outcome in this tournament.

I would prefer to fold this and steal blinds in POS, than flip for half my stack.

[TheFoxNL]

youre forgetting this image
raising or shoving w/e lets stick with shoving
is so much more EV+ over the long term then
flatcalling for setmining

lets say you win both villains stacks 9200 if you do hit a set (wich is how many times once every 8 times i recall somebody saying?? Correct me if wrong)

now lets say we shove this hand 8 times in this situation
pot is about 1900 with youre SB and antes

so if you shove 8 times you win around 15k
if you hit youre set once in those 8 hands
(again correct me if its not 8) and get full value out of it
youlle win 9200 BUT! every other 7 hands you loose 700 for flatcalling and prob have to fold to the c-bet
thats 4900 down wich means with this set mining


now im no math wiz but i do know that picking up the dead money here is MORE ev+ then set mining in the long run
in this situation

[xGREGORx]

I think someone above said I had 16BBs… I actually have 26BB’s. So what about the following analysis?

Stack versus blinds:
We are at the 120/240/25 level
Hero = 6335 chips or 26BB’s.
Villian1 = 5677 chips or 24BB's
Villain 2 = 3675 or 15BB's.

The action:
Villian 1 raises to ~3BB’s and Villian 2 calls, so when the action gets to me in the SB there is ~3 + ~3 + 1.5 + ~1 = ~8.5BB’s in the pot. Isn’t pushing for effectively 24BB’s (villian1’s stack) to win 8.5BB’s overkill? I’d feel better about a push if I had ~17BB’s.

Alternatively, why can’t I just reraise to 2400 (10BB’s). I think it sends a stronger signal of a big pocket pair, especially with my image at the time. This might be more of a convincing squeeze than a push, causing 99 – JJ to fold? Is a push by me looking more like an AK play and 99 – JJ might be more willing to gamble there?

But would a reraise to 10BB’s give me room to fold if either villain pushes? If villain 1 pushes over the top for a 3rd raise, the pot would have 3+3+2.5+10+21 = 39.5BB’s and I would have to call 11 more BB’s getting ~3.5:1 to call. Nice odds for sure and with my image at the time I think villian1’s range would be JJ+, AK. 88 versus that range is 2:1 against winning, so I have to call and pray for a coinflip. If you take AK out of the range, then 88 is 4:1 against winning and a fold would be warranted. The other consideration though is that I would still have a decent stack if I fold to a villian1 push… 16BB’s which still gives me room to convincingly resteal. Now, if villian1 folds and villian2 pushes, the pot would have 3+3+2.5+10+12 = 30.5BB’s and I would have to instacall for 2 more BB’s.

Finally, the more I think about it… this hand is getting decided preflop. I think neither villain calls a 2400 reraise by me to see a flop. They’re either pushing or folding preflop, so the flop discussion is probably moot.

Thoughts????

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In this situation however, folding a missed set, which still could be the best hand at the moment, might be a large enough error to cost you the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

this statement is so retarded i'm not sure where to begin.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well let's look at some numbers. Hero calls and the pot is about 2600. Hero checks flop (flop is two flush and two overcards) Villain 1 moves in on the flop, Villain 2 folds. Now back to Hero who has a hell of a decision. The all-in is for 5000 chips and Hero has about 5500 left.

If he calls and wins, he has around 13000 chips. If he folds he has 5500 chips and if he calls and loses he has 500 chips.

These kind of decisions can make or break your tournament. If you fold a winning hand here, you are passing on around 7500 chips which is 140% of your stack.

If you still think I'm retarded, well this is a free board and I have a thick skin.

[TheFoxNL]

the point is going to flop only makes youre decision more difficult

if you call and you DO have the best hand but there are overs on the board thats only gonna make it harder

shoving preflop or raising to about 3k preflop is way better

as for shoving 24BB in 8,5 BB i dont think thats overkill

[KneeCo]

[ QUOTE ]
Play safe and just call and hope to hit a set?

[/ QUOTE ]
Set mining with these stacks is -EV. Without having read replies, if anyone is talking about playing for set value, that would be a mistake, since there's no positive value in that play.

[ QUOTE ]
-or-
Reraise to 2100 or so... what if that gets called... what do you do on particular flops?

[/ QUOTE ]

Throwing in like a third of your stack for the privilege of playing OOP with like 1 PSB behind is -EV with 88.

[ QUOTE ]
-or-
Reraise all in?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the decision, I'm sure I'm folding 66 and lower, shoving TT+, 88 it depends but I can see shoving it and some tables.