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#1
11-13-2007, 08:12 AM
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Sick river spot with 3rd nuts versus Vanilla TAG
Villain is 20/10/1, and plays a very straightforward ABC game. He often plays pot control with TPTK, doesn't fire many big bluffs, and passes on most thin value bet spots. Running into AK or AA here would be disgustingly sick, given pot odds and the combinations that my KK wipes out - but for the life of me no other hand makes even a shred of sense. I strongly suspect that he flat calls that river with 33, and do not see him firing a big bluff.
I hardly *ever* make big folds, but I really don't know about this spot. Party Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter BTN: $479.70 SB: $205.62 BB: $117.14 UTG: $59.50 Hero (MP): $577.60 CO: $220 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP) UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, CO calls $8, BTN calls $8, SB calls $7, BB folds Flop: ($34) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $24</font>, CO calls $24, 2 folds Turn: ($82) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, CO checks River: ($82) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $60</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $144</font> 
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#3
11-13-2007, 08:25 AM
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Re: Sick river spot with 3rd nuts versus Vanilla TAG
Oh and for the nits who will inevitably chime in, yes, technically I have the 5th nuts, but A9 and A3 really aren't part of his range imo.
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#4
11-13-2007, 08:27 AM
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Re: Sick river spot with 3rd nuts versus Vanilla TAG
Any idea of his calling/3 betting pf range?
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#5
11-13-2007, 08:30 AM
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Re: Sick river spot with 3rd nuts versus Vanilla TAG
I'm certainly not folding but I don't know if I want to shove.
AQ with Qs my my initial reaction and still think that is a large part of his range. Obviously the remaining AA is in there although this is hugely unlikely. The only other hands that beat you are the 2 remaining AK, and they do make sense given the way the hand played out, a lot of people will smooth call with them in pos, scary flop so smooth call again, pot control turn thinking they can't possibly be good and don't want to get cr, hit the magic ace on river and raise to get value from flushes. A3s will almost always be folded pre I think, A9s could be there but would probably fold flop. I really think he's got AK here but not enough to warrant a fold.
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#6
11-13-2007, 08:35 AM
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Re: Sick river spot with 3rd nuts versus Vanilla TAG
[ QUOTE ]
Any idea of his calling/3 betting pf range? [/ QUOTE ] No, I don't have an exact handle on his specifically. Back when I was playing similar to this guy, I would 3bet AA/KK always, but usually flat call with AK and AQ plus small pp's, so AK/AQ are definitely part of his range and can't be ruled out. AA we can probaby discount but that doesn't mean much.
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#7
11-13-2007, 08:36 AM
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Re: Sick river spot with 3rd nuts versus Vanilla TAG
Don't ABC TAGs 3 bet AK pretty much always?
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#10
11-13-2007, 09:06 AM
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Re: Sick river spot with 3rd nuts versus Vanilla TAG
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say a 20/17 tag 3bets AK always but a 20/10 tag not nescessarily. Ruling out AK here is bad imo. Wouldn't Qs bet something on the turn? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah calling this guy "Tag" is a bit of a stretch I guess if we're being picky. He's tight preflop, ABC postflop, and not stupid. 20/10/1's flat call with AK all the time.
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