#1
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100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
PF is obviously hilarious. The limp/re-raiser (MP2) was running ~33/22 over a couple orbits and seemed passive. The min-raiser (CO) was a nit who probably folded like QQ.
I really thought I'd get raised on the flop, so I bet a bit small to entice a raise. However, after donking into him twice, especially with the size of the turn bet, is it too scary to just open shove the river? If so, how much should I bet here? He's passive, but I have no idea if he would raise a $40 bet with AA; I am pretty sure, though, that he can't fold a big pair here. UB NLHE - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 10 Players SB: $17.50 Hero (BB): $112.30 UTG: $62.10 UTG+1: $138.95 UTG+2: $98.00 MP1: $115.65 MP2: $108.70 MP3: $104.00 CO: $96.90 BTN: $140.65 Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10 Players) 4 folds, MP2 calls $1.00, MP3 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $2.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.00, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $5.00</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $3.00 Flop: ($12.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $7.00</font>, MP2 calls $7.00 Turn: ($26.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $22.50</font>, MP2 calls $22.50 River: ($71.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) HERO (Villain has ~$75 left) EDIT: I'm posting these because I think I try to play for stacks too much. Is a shove overkill here? |
#2
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Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
If he is going to call a $40 bet with AA, why wouldn't he call a $70 bet?
If he has a set, he is probably calling a bet no matter what. If he missed one of his draws, he isn't going to call anything - your only hope in this case would be to have him bluff a draw on the river. If he has an overpair and will call a $40 bet, I'm pretty sure shoving is more EV. I think I would just push here. |
#3
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Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
[ QUOTE ]
If he is going to call a $40 bet with AA, why wouldn't he call a $70 bet? [/ QUOTE ] I don't think he can fold aces, I'm just not sure if he's raising with them if I bet $40 (some passive donks will just shove over any bet with AA on this board). |
#4
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Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
push
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#5
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Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
[ QUOTE ]
How Much Do I Bet? [/ QUOTE ] All of it. |
#6
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Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
His read of you and/or your table image would help here. I think you're forgoing value if you open-shove -- that can't have the highest expectation.
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#7
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Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
Are you sure it doesn't maximize EV? Hero's read on villain is heavily implying that villain can't fold an overpair.
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#8
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Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
You should be betting more on the flop.
I think a river shove will get called. |
#9
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Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
[ QUOTE ]
His read of you and/or your table image would help here. [/ QUOTE ] Third (?) orbit, so I doubt he had any reads other than that I wasn't a maniac. |
#10
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Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
I weakish bet of about $25 might entice him to come over the top with an overpair. Thoughts ?
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