Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math)

[tubasteve]

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I think the conclusions are all wrong. You need to calculate how much you actually win when you flop a pushable hand. That's the key variable. That means calculating an EV for the pushable draws estimating your fold equity. If you assume 100% fold equity the EV of a combo draw is small. If you assume 0% fold equity, the EV of a combo draw is small.

I don't see how SC can be as profitable as pps.

Krishan

Krishan

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I'd really like for someone to address this.

[Jouster777]

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Great point on position fizzle. It also applies to sets but it is just part of the considerations that adjusts your range toward the 5 rather than the 10.

You are right the effect is much greater when potentially drawing. I'll throw out some more estimates and maybe you or others can refine them:
1. you have a 5.6% chance of flopping big made hand, ~90+% equity =>
Expectation 60% of effective stack in position
Expectation 40% of effective stack OOP
2. you have a ~7% chance of flopping a strong (12+ outs) combo draw, ~50% equity =>
Expectation 25% of effective stack in position
Expectation 15% of effective stack OOP
3. you have a ~13% chance of flopping a standard OESD or FD, ~35% equity =>
Expectation 7% of effective stack in position
Expectation 2.5% of effective stack OOP

EV(IP) = .056*.6S+.07*.25S+.13*.07S-.75B = 0
EV(OOP)= .056*.4S+.07*.15S+.13*.025S-.75B = 0

IP situation: 0.08*S=B or our preflop bet should be <8% on average
OOP situation: 0.05*S=B or our preflop bet should be <5% on average

Leading to:
IP 5-10 rule
OOP 3-7 rule

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Interesting analysis...... how are you coming up with these expectation percentages?

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For #1 I used the 5-10 rule for set mining as a benchmark. If you look at that "rule" it expects you will capture 50% of villain's stack, on average, when you hit a big made hand. For SC's this number might be even higher because the made hands you flop are stronger than sets (though also more transparent) leading to me using the 50% number.
For #2 and #3 I extrapolated/guessed

Any fine tuning of those numbers/estimates and criticisms would be great.

[goofyballer]

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I think the conclusions are all wrong. You need to calculate how much you actually win when you flop a pushable hand. That's the key variable. That means calculating an EV for the pushable draws estimating your fold equity. If you assume 100% fold equity the EV of a combo draw is small. If you assume 0% fold equity, the EV of a combo draw is small.

I don't see how SC can be as profitable as pps.

Krishan

Krishan

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I'd really like for someone to address this.

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This is the part that I need someone smarter than me to look into. There are so many complex factors that go into postflop play that determine how much FE you have, how often you'll get AI with the draw, etc. that it's really hard to come up with a figure of how much money you'll win playing these.

I tried to make a point of not making any conclusions based on the data. I just calculated all this so you guys would be more aware of the kinds of situations you can expect to be in postflop with SCs (and how often you'll find yourself in them), and in the hopes that someone would be able to extrapolate the data into more meaningful conclusions about how we should play SCs preflop.

Also, steve, I'm too busy looking into your avatar's eyes to figure this out: who is she? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[retleftolc]

In your scenerio whats wrong with 70% pb, instead of psb?

Sure you dont end up with as much in the middle when you hit and they busto, but you dont give up as much when you have to let it go on the river. So, is it a wash either way?

Do you think added FE of a psb makes the difference?

What about in Little Green Book where Gordon talks about SpiritRock just pushing these same hands?

Do we beieve all three end up with about the same results?

Ive gone with 70%, because Ill be betting that way with just about everything on the flop. c-bet, TPTK, etc . . .
I used to apply your method, just to keep it simple. But I soon realized I didnt care for c-betting the pot, and gettin reraised the pot with TPTK.

Ret

[ZingyDNA]

Well I checked my PT numbers on PPs(TT~22, no need to drag the big pairs) and compare that to SCs, I win alot more w/ PPs. I even lose money w/ SCs if I don't take AKs into account. I'm just not good enough to play SCs profitably. Even they make a hand, it's usually not the nuts. There will be higher staights/flushes, the board will pair... With PP hitting a set, I know exactly what to do.

[VorShot]

I just found this gem, and i think it deserves a bump to those people, such as myself, that missed it.

[luke4130]

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I just found this gem, and i think it deserves a bump to those people, such as myself, that missed it.

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I really appreciate this. Great find.

Nice post Goofy.

[carrotsnake]

OMG, goofy got street cred yo. Also, anything > 8 outs = ARRIN!

[VorShot]

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OMG, goofy got street cred yo. Also, anything > 8 outs = ARRIN!

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Yuck.

[Lego05]

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I just found this gem, and i think it deserves a bump to those people, such as myself, that missed it.

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I agree. Probably also deserves more analysis from people more capable than me.