200NL 6max: JJ blind versus blind (sortoff), whats hero line?

[cs3]

im pretty surprised everyones so happy to stack off here. what exactly do you think this guy is calling the 3bet with PF OOP? heros read is that villain is flop over-aggro, not stupid PF donkey.
i think hero is getting owned by AA/KK and sets a much larger part of the time than most guys seem to think. best case villain has 88 and only has 10 outs

[VPIP100]

[ QUOTE ]
im pretty surprised everyones so happy to stack off here. what exactly do you think this guy is calling the 3bet with PF OOP? heros read is that villain is flop over-aggro, not stupid PF donkey.
i think hero is getting owned by AA/KK and sets a much larger part of the time than most guys seem to think. best case villain has 88 and only has 10 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

After thinking about this some more I think I agree and this should be an easy fold. But then again, why do we 3-bet here?

There is no good board for JJ without a J, everytime you get action youre beat.

Villain had 99 here.

[Paul Thomson]

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[ QUOTE ]
im pretty surprised everyones so happy to stack off here. what exactly do you think this guy is calling the 3bet with PF OOP? heros read is that villain is flop over-aggro, not stupid PF donkey.
i think hero is getting owned by AA/KK and sets a much larger part of the time than most guys seem to think. best case villain has 88 and only has 10 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

After thinking about this some more I think I agree and this should be an easy fold. But then again, why do we 3-bet here?

There is no good board for JJ without a J, everytime you get action youre beat.

Villain had 99 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is pretty poor thinking really...maybe i was thinking about making a post about it but have been too lazy.

But as long as Villain will do this with 88. Then it's really hard to put a villain on a range where folding is correct. sure you can come up with one, but then folding is marginally -EV, whereas there are tons of more reasonable ranges where folding is bad.

[Montezuma21]

GRUNCH:

FWIW i don't think his high flop AF can give us much information in this particular spot. people play different in 3bet pots.

you haven't provided any reads, but i think any semi-competent villain's (and from his stats he's most likely precisely that) range can't be much wider than the one i stoved below:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

29,700 games 0.005 secs 5,940,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 7c 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.704% 24.54% 02.17% 7287 644.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 73.296% 71.13% 02.17% 21125 644.00 { 99+, AcKc, AcQc }

you're being offered pot odds of 2.05-1 but you're a 2.8-1 dog. i think this is a fold.

[slvrlakesmoke]

I never fold this

[myke11]

he had you beat preflop... fold

[Montezuma21]

[ QUOTE ]

But as long as Villain will do this with 88. Then it's really hard to put a villain on a range where folding is correct. sure you can come up with one, but then folding is marginally -EV, whereas there are tons of more reasonable ranges where folding is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely correct IMO- Also, I hadn't noticed your (VPIP's) read that he calls 3bets light OOP-given that, i think this is a fairly easy push.


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After thinking about this some more I think I agree and this should be an easy fold. But then again, why do we 3-bet here?

There is no good board for JJ without a J, everytime you get action youre beat.

Villain had 99 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is pretty poor thinking really...maybe i was thinking about making a post about it but have been too lazy.


[/ QUOTE ]

Please please please do this- this is one thing i've never figured out properly.

[cs3]

[ QUOTE ]


After thinking about this some more I think I agree and this should be an easy fold. But then again, why do we 3-bet here?

There is no good board for JJ without a J, everytime you get action youre beat.

Villain had 99 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, PF 3bet is good/standard. youre well ahead of his range and he will often call you with worse pairs PF and stack off on low flops. but this is just a really [censored] board for JJ, and would be a pretty bad spot for villain to bluff with anything that in his range (which i assume is almost all pairs < KK)

[agnoke10]

i love a fold here, you aren't crushing anything