Full time sports betting? - Page 2

warrantofice · #11 10-01-2007, 04:04 PM

The key to being a good sports bettor, which i consider myself to be, perhaps the top 1% of all bettors world wide, is to have lots of friends, lots and lots of friends, its really just about knowing people, say you have 500 friends, i have a lot more, but i won't give you the number.so your 500 friends, wait make that 1000 friends, i have more but you should shoot for 1000 and you call them up. i call my friends up every day maybe every 2 days if i have flu, but your calling and calling calling, wow you'll get used to it. now this is the important part, you gotta make sure that about 100 of these friends are degenerate gambooooling freaks, you probably saying what? were do i find good friends like that...well heres the catch, there not actually your friends...yep its out. so be really good friends with the 900 other people and just 'friends' with the gambooola's...so you call your really good friends up and say hey sam i need 10 dollars, and sam will say yah man here's 20 dollars, well you make that phone call 10 times that 200 dollars, you make that phone call 100 times that 2000 dollars, yep that math is right, 2000 dollars, now you got a bankroll, so you go to the track and you find your 100 'friends' and you bet them all 20 dollars on the oilers game next week. but heres the trick...well i can't tell you the trick or you;d all be making money this way.........so you triple your money, then you go back to your good friends and pay them back...well i do this every day and i'm making like 750k a year, [censored] that guy who talks about family and health care, how many people die on the phone??? how man people get hurt at the race track...yeah... it is the secret of life. but keep it hush hush

King Yao · #12 10-01-2007, 04:37 PM

There is some truth to what you say if you are only a handicapper and only betting sides and/or totals that you handicapped. But there are a lot more other things going on. In each of the last three years, I made more than 3,000 different bets per year. I did not lack for sample size in my wagers, and I thought each one was positive EV when I made them.

NajdorfDefense · #13 10-01-2007, 04:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In order to make a decent living at sports betting, your friend will need a few things, in increasing order of importance:

3) Ability to consistently beat the books on at least one sport (more and more widely-followed is better).

2) He'll need a large enough bankroll to allow him to have bet sizes large enough that a ROI of 2-3% on will return enough to support him in the lifestyle he'd want. And the knowledge to know he shouldn't pass up even a dime of EV+.

1) He'll need a lot of discipline - in what he bets, in dealing with losses (and wins), in bankroll management, in bet size management, etc. And probably no gamble in him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thremp · #14 10-01-2007, 06:45 PM

Naj,

That [censored] is bad. I don't know why you're quoting it. The third part is fine, but the 2nd is horrid enough to make me wanna vomit. Unless he cites 2-3% as a minimum floor similar to a margin of safety.

BobJoeJim · #15 10-01-2007, 07:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Naj,

That [censored] is bad. I don't know why you're quoting it. The third part is fine, but the 2nd is horrid enough to make me wanna vomit. Unless he cites 2-3% as a minimum floor similar to a margin of safety.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that if you're just starting out, it IS good advice to have a large enough bankroll that a 2-3% ROI can support you. Yes, you should probably be getting a better ROI than that on average, but it's entirely possible that even if you're getting your money in you could end up only winning 2-3% purely due the downside of variance. Add in that this is someone inexperienced with no known track record, even if we give him credit for being a winner in the long-term, he could very well make a few bad bets during the learning process that drag down his ROI at the beginning.

If a ROI of less than 2-3% is unnacceptable to you, your bankroll probably isn't large enough to embark upon this path, which is how I intereperted the original post. And I agree. If this is what you mean by "minimum floor" or "margin of safety" then perhaps you agree too. Otherwise, would you care to explain why you think this isn't good advice?

Thremp · #16 10-01-2007, 08:03 PM

BJJ,

I think you should be looking for significantly higher than 2-3%. That is what I meant. Also you shouldn't be looking to maximize EV as that can lead to unnecessary and damaging swongs. Theres a lot to be said for just making a living on line movements and math. This is by far the easiest way to support yourself.

NajdorfDefense · #17 10-01-2007, 08:05 PM

I didn't really think too much about the ROI%, I agree you should be looking for >>> 2-3%, but maybe that is a good starting point for people, as if they cannot make that number than they should pretty much forget about it w/o very large bankroll.

I agree, and have said repeatedly, that line moves and shopping and arbs are far easier and more profitable, all things considered.

King Yao · #18 10-01-2007, 08:19 PM

3% ROI is on the high end IMO.

NajdorfDefense · #19 10-01-2007, 09:32 PM

Without a time frame, I'm not sure how to evaluate 2-3% ROI. For a week, it's obviously high. For a year, it's very low.

King Yao · #20 10-01-2007, 09:47 PM

let me rephrase because I think we are thinking different things, and its a confusion due to semantics. When I say 3% ROI, I mean over the total amount of money bet. The total money bet is churned over and over every week. Say you put 10K into action (on average) every week and have a 20K bankroll. Over a 20-week season, you'd be betting 200K (on average) while using a 20K bankroll. So 3% of 200K = 6K ... but 6K of a 20K bankroll is 30%.