Put him on a hand..MPGK..call river? [200NL]

[BombayBadboy]

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $202.00
BB: $200.00
UTG: $244.70
MP: $219.15
CO: $137.40
BTN: $197.00

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 17/12/4 over &gt;500 hands.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, CO calls $2.00, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10.00</font>, BB calls $8.00, CO folds

Flop: ($22) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $14.00</font>, BB calls $14.00

Turn: ($50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets $24.00</font>, Hero calls $24.00

River: ($98) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets $44.00</font>, Hero?

I can't put him on a hand here. Help me out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[cfb1739]

I can't put him on a hand either.

Think about the hand from villain's perspective. What hand would he put you on? Given that you made a terribly weak flop bet and check called the turn, I'm guessing a very weak king.

I really doubt that villain is on a draw because he would/should play alot more aggressively if he intends to play the hand through to the river.

Since your hand looks like a weak king and villain probably isn't drawing, I think you should fold.

[BombayBadboy]

I think I'd bet the turn with most kings to charge draws. I dunno, maybe I shoot have bet the turn here too?

Btw, what is so terribly weak about an approx. 3/4 potbet on the flop? I think its just fine.

[Demogorgon]

Ugh this doesn't make any sense. I can't put him on a hand either, such weird bet sizing but it does look more like value than a bluff. Don't know what kings he could possibly have here. KJ he folds pf, KQ probably folds most of the time depending on your image and raises flop most of the time when he has it, AK he probably 3bets often enough to discount it. JTs will probably either check behind on the turn fearing a stack-a-donk, or bet bigger. Guess JhTh is possible since he's not afraid of a C/R with that.
66 is not impossible if he puts you on something like exactly what you have or a draw and wants to take you to valuetown or was hoping to get C/Red on the turn. That given I still don't like his bet sizing.

I think the river is a fold but I don't absolutely hate a call with his weird line and the odds you are given.

[djj6835]

KQ, maybe 88. I don't think you are good when he bets the river. All you beat on the turn is air assuming he was floating the flop but i think he gives up most of the time after the turn call. His river bet is such a value bet too.

[martijn]

fold

[cfb1739]

[ QUOTE ]

Btw, what is so terribly weak about an approx. 3/4 potbet on the flop? I think its just fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would bet $20. $14 on the flop into $22 is just asking to get bluff raised. It looks exactly like what it is: a continuation bet.

Terrible is probably a bad term to use, sorry. It's definitely not what I would consider optimal size. Would you bet the same amount w/ AK here?

[BombayBadboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Btw, what is so terribly weak about an approx. 3/4 potbet on the flop? I think its just fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would bet $20. $14 on the flop into $22 is just asking to get bluff raised. It looks exactly like what it is: a continuation bet.

Terrible is probably a bad term to use, sorry. It's definitely not what I would consider optimal size. Would you bet the same amount w/ AK here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[cfb1739]

[ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Start betting full pot, or very close to it, on the flop. You are losing a ton of value over the long run. If villian will call $14, then he will call $20.

Betting more also builds the pot on future streets so you will be getting more value on the turn and river as well.

Example (assume you have AK): in this hand if you bet $20 on the flop, then the pot will be $62 on the turn. A reasonable turn bet, or river bet if you elect to check turn for pot control, will be around $50. So at the end of the hand the pot that you win will be $162.

When you bet $14 the pot will be $50 on the turn making the size of your next value bet around $40. You end up winning a pot of $130. That's $32 that you left on the table. Think of how many times you are in these spots, and you can see how much money you are losing.

[deaders]

Some turn stats for him would help but its an easy river fold, he is taking you to value town. Those 'wierd' 1/2 pot bets are how some guys like this value bet.