NBA over/under win totals

[alwardc4]

Just out on sportbook, so they are -115 on the over or under. Any thoughts, leans?

Atlanta Hawks 38.5
Washington Wizards 39.5
Charlotte BobCats 35.5
Chicago Bulls 50.5
Cleveland 49.5
Dallas Mavericks 56.5
Denver Nuggets 48.5
Detroit Pistons 50.5
Golden State Warriors 42.5
Houston Rockets 53.5
Indiana Pacers 30.5
Los Angeles Clippers 30.5
Los Angeles Lakers 44.5
Memphis Grizzlies 32.5
Miami Heat 46.5
Milwaukee Bucks 35.5
Minnesota T-Wolves 19.5
New Jersey Nets 43.5
New Orleans Hornets O 37.5
New York Knicks Over 37.5
Orlando Magic 47.5
Philadelphia 76ers 32.5
Phoenix Suns 55.5
Portland Blazers 30.5
Sacramento Kings 34.5
San Antonio Spurs 54.5
Seattle Sonics 27.5
Toronto Raptors 41.5
Utah Jazz 47.5
Boston Celtics 50.5

[Allah_In]

Portland over. Seattle over. Philadelphia over.
Lakers under. Boston under. Sacramento under.

[AMG]

Wow, thanks for listing 6 teams. Don't be afraid to explain why.

My thoughts:

NJ over. Tons of injuries last year, back and healthy, can make easy single-digit improvement. Kidd, Carter, Jeff, Kristic plus a better big in Magloire.

Chi over. How can the number be this low? All returning, Wallace can only be better, and they won't start as badly as they did last season.

Mem under. It's a year too early, no one realizes just how erratic Gay, Swift, Warrick and Miller are until you're forced to watch them daily. They have 3 point guards, Conley is currently the least talented, but will have to play the most.

[Allah_In]

Wow. I didn't realize anyone cared.

Lakers under has equity because of a greater than 0% possibility that Kobe Bryant gets traded. Brown and Odom both banged up, a trade would totally reform the team, over .500 at that point would be an unlikely scenario.

Boston under because over 50 wins is a tall order for a team that is totally revamped. Granted, they have a few stars, now, but traded away all their depth, and any prolonged injuries to one or more of the big three makes them very unlikely to reach 51 wins.

Sacramento has not done anything to improve except change coaches, Miller, Artest, Bibby one year older, young core of Douby, Martin and Garcia not enough to improve this record. Hawes too young to provide much needed muscle, didn't improve on their crappy shooting. 34.5 too high. SAC 16-25 last half of last year.

Portland over. Portland going in the opposite direction as SAC. bad body language of Randolph, who is gone, with Frye and Blake filling needs. They can only go up, even without Oden. Portland 15-25 last half of lst year, but I believe have significantly improved.

Philadelphia over 32.5. Reggie Evans is exactly what this team needed. They were so soft. Adding 7'0 banger Jason Smith will help marginally, ultimately he will start grabbing time from Dalembert, another softy. Miller solid, young talented group of Lou Williams, Smith and Rodney Carney ready to step up. Freak Thaddeus Young won't be a factor yet, too young. PHI was 24-17 last half of last year, now they are adding muscle. 32.5 waaay too low, should be about 41.

Seattle over 27.5. What they did lat year means nothign, since this team is totally new. Ridnour and Collison a year better and Durant and Green are not just your average rookies. Durant has LeBron potential and I think can make an impact immediately. I also think they benefit from a slightly weaker West, as will Portland, and I think the 27.5 is a number that is very attractive. I consider them better than SAC, probably around 32 wins, maybe 34. Really with this bet, I am betting that Durant is more than your average rookie.

I agree with you on NJ, by the way.

[Needle77]

I really like the NJ over if Kristic has fully recovered and Richard Jefferson is also completely healthy. Kidd looked awesome in the FIBA's and we all know what Carter can do. Sean Williams and Magliore are nice additions to the team as well. Not to mention I really like L. Frank as a coach.

The cons on it are the divison looks improved this year. Celtics are a title contender, LDO, as well as the Knicks getting Randolph. Raptors proved to be a good team last year and then there is the 6'ers which I feel Allah_In gave a better insight than I could.

[4Tay]

30 Teams x 82 Games each, divide by 2 Teams per game = 1230 games in a season.

Sum of all the O/U wins listed = 1519.5 games.


There has to be value on selecting unders.

[Allah_In]

Good looking out. We are an over-betting public, some things never change.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
30 Teams x 82 Games each, divide by 2 Teams per game = 1230 games in a season.

Sum of all the O/U wins listed = 1245 games.


There has to be value on selecting unders.

[/ QUOTE ]

You missed the decimal place on the Sonics.

I just feel like being nitty today since I don't wanna poker and there are no games [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[4Tay]

Oops, my bad. It was actually the LA Clippers where I missed the decimal place.

[Allah_In]

someone has to keep people in line