Paperchamp's NFL Week 8

New001 · #1 10-25-2007, 02:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The indy game raised red flags right away. The spread is deceivingly low. Everyone and their mother is betting indy. I think this line will move to 7 and I will begrudgingly bet Carolina.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd be more surprised to see it close at 7 than at 6.

Jazzy3113 · #2 10-25-2007, 02:43 PM

if everyone is hammering indy why the [censored] is it stagnant at 6.5?

mogwai316 · #3 10-25-2007, 02:46 PM

Wagerline shows 82.49% of ATS bets on Indianapolis.

LogistX · #4 10-25-2007, 04:58 PM

A spread move from 6.5 to 7 is a HUGE move. Wagerline does show a little over 80% on Indy right now but that doesn't necessarily mean 80% of the money is on Indy. However, I would expect that 80% of the money on Indy is not far off. Predicting precisely where the line will move is hard and I certainly can't do it with any real certainty.

However, let's think for a second what exactly this all means. Vegas moves lines for a couple reasons. Firstly, they may change the line due to new circumstances that were not taken into account in the previous line. Also, they move the lines to balance action in some cases. Potentially, if they feel they can change the line slightly without balancing the action, they may do that to increase their edge. It is still early in the week and it is possible that although a high percentage of bettors are taking Indy, not a lot of money has been bet relative to how much Vegas expects to be on that game by kickoff. In that case, it is not surprising that the line has not moved. However, if the trend continues and the line remains unchanged this gives us some very important information. If a lot of people take one side and the line doesn't change, Vegas is VERY confident in their position and they do not feel the need to balance the action. Vegas believes that they are getting the best of the public. If the consensus doesn't change by kickoff, I will definitely be on a Carolina team that can't seem to win at home.

Ramble ramble...

NoChance · #5 10-25-2007, 05:04 PM

I would also be careful when betting either NE or Indy this week. I know the players and coaches never admit it but they may already be looking ahead to the week 9 match up.

LogistX · #6 10-25-2007, 08:06 PM

Carolina +7 at Bodog. I really need money in that book...

LogistX · #7 10-29-2007, 06:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Carolina +7 at Bodog. I really need money in that book...

[/ QUOTE ]
I am fortunate I do not have money in that book =). Betonline still had it at +6.5 so I passed on it.