$16 - AQ bubble vs reraise

[Kevin8423]

Misread stack sizes, this is a shove against aggressive players and it could go either way against worse players. I probably lean towards raising if the players aren't aggressive on the bubble because you have even less chance of bubbling and they won't exploit it by shoving ATC.

[IFoldPktOnes]

I don't see why there should be paranoia about ANY villain pushing ATC here at a $16.

I think open pushing is giving up value here, it would be ok with antes though. Well played OP (fold to 3-bet obv).

[eurythmech]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see why there should be paranoia about ANY villain pushing ATC here at a $16.


[/ QUOTE ]

Then don't post?

[IFoldPktOnes]

Do you push ATC as SB? Do you realize how exploitable that would be vs my t500 raising range once I have even a semi-decent read?

Do some ICM, if I call with 25% of my raising range it would be a hugely -EV play.

[eurythmech]

How many times do you think we have to be in this situation together for you to get a decent idea of what my pushing range is?

Assuming I push 20% or 50% or 100%, how long would it take 'til you knew for certain? It could take hundreds of commonly played 16s.

Plus, I might not be the guy who resteals the widest here, but then again, against some, I might.

The thing is, sb doesn't need to shove every time for this to be a [censored] spot for us.

[JLaw]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see why there should be paranoia about ANY villain pushing ATC here at a $16.

I think open pushing is giving up value here, it would be ok with antes though. Well played OP (fold to 3-bet obv).

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't necessarily discard this possibility just because it's a $16. Instead of judging by the buy-in, judge based on the SB's play so far. Have you seen him re-steal, particularly light? Have you seen him amp up the aggression in a serious way as the big stack on the bubble (relative to earlier play?). Has he seen you make raises on the bubble and lay down to a re-raise from a bigger stack, etc etc.

As played, dump it. You've got a short stack and you don't want to risk bubbling with AQ against a re-raise. Pay close attention to how the big stack plays the bubble and make notes for the future.

Jeff

[IFoldPktOnes]

[ QUOTE ]
How many times do you think we have to be in this situation together for you to get a decent idea of what my pushing range is?

Assuming I push 20% or 50% or 100%, how long would it take 'til you knew for certain? It could take hundreds of commonly played 16s.

Plus, I might not be the guy who resteals the widest here, but then again, against some, I might.

The thing is, sb doesn't need to shove every time for this to be a [censored] spot for us.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wasn't arguing with 20/50%, just 100%. Valid point about sample size, you do get called >1/5th of the time here tho and the hand could be observed, etc. I've never seen this happen, but meh only a 1k sample at the $16s.

Simplifying to 80/20s the situation would be something like this:


Thats -7% EV when you are being trapped. Most regs would fear being trapped by another reg here.

[IFoldPktOnes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see why there should be paranoia about ANY villain pushing ATC here at a $16.

I think open pushing is giving up value here, it would be ok with antes though. Well played OP (fold to 3-bet obv).

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't necessarily discard this possibility just because it's a $16. Instead of judging by the buy-in, judge based on the SB's play so far. Have you seen him re-steal, particularly light? Have you seen him amp up the aggression in a serious way as the big stack on the bubble (relative to earlier play?). Has he seen you make raises on the bubble and lay down to a re-raise from a bigger stack, etc etc.

As played, dump it. You've got a short stack and you don't want to risk bubbling with AQ against a re-raise. Pay close attention to how the big stack plays the bubble and make notes for the future.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]
OP's read on SB was "very tight" so it seems pretty obvious raise-fold was good in this specific hand. I was making a general statement and I said $16s because thats what I play and feel qualified to comment on [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[eurythmech]

The thing with 25 or 50% was just to illustrate that it'd take a whole lot for you to figure out what % I'm at.
And naturally, I could be pushing atc one day and 25% the next.

Also, vs a lot of "heroes", I'm not getting called nearly 20 % of the time. A lot of players open fairly wide, like 44 A5 Kt QJ JT or whatever, and proceed to fold everything except JJ AK or so. Kind of exact ranges for a guesstimate, but I think the gist of it is correct.

[kkcountry]

am i the only one who thinks this is an easy (open) fold based on how this should play out from the next hand on?