Call, Fold, or Neutral?

Mercman572 · #1 03-02-2006, 01:47 AM

I think this might be a near neutral EV situation call or fold. Want to get a little bit of a consensus here.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button ($39.16)
SB ($102.57)
BB ($120.59)
UTG ($97.50)
Hero ($93)
CO ($35.76)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, Hero calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $4, Button folds, SB calls $4, BB folds.

Turn: ($12) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB raises to $52.75

Well he's obviously got a 10. No reads. He's in the blind. Am I stacking off?

ticks · #2 03-02-2006, 01:57 AM

Would he do this with T9?
When you lead the turn he must assume you have a ten too.
I dont think he is looking for a fold.
I think he thinks you cant get away.

If this happened to me at the table, I might call.
Here in the forum, with a cool head, it looks like a good fold.

Mercman572 · #3 03-02-2006, 02:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Would he do this with T9?
When you lead the turn he must assume you have a ten too.
I dont think he is looking for a fold.
I think he thinks you cant get away.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume an unknown would do this with almost any 10. at least with 610. I had this happen against an unknown another time tonight with 7's paired, I had a boat, he had 47.

ticks · #4 03-02-2006, 02:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would he do this with T9?
When you lead the turn he must assume you have a ten too.
I dont think he is looking for a fold.
I think he thinks you cant get away.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume an unknown would do this with almost any 10. at least with 610. I had this happen against an unknown another time tonight with 7's paired, I had a boat, he had 47.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think this situation is EV-neutral.
What hands beat you:
T2, T6, TQ, TK, TA, 66. 6 hands. (22 is unlikely)
Hands you beat:
T3, T4, T5, T7, T8, T9. 6 hands.

Which group of hands is most likely to play this way?
This is close, but a fold.

(Edited stupid error)

Dootch · #5 03-02-2006, 02:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Which group of hands is most likely to call a raise preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

There was no raise preflop and he was in the SB. He could have any of those hands.

22 isn't any more unlikely than the other hands you mention.

with no read id fold

ticks · #6 03-02-2006, 02:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Which group of hands is most likely to call a raise preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

There was no raise preflop and he was in the SB. He could have any of those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Arrr! I edited it away, ok! So damn fast.

Mercman572 · #7 03-02-2006, 10:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I dont think this situation is EV-neutral.
What hands beat you:
T2, T6, TQ, TK, TA, 66. 6 hands. (22 is unlikely)
Hands you beat:
T3, T4, T5, T7, T8, T9. 6 hands.

Which group of hands is most likely to play this way?
This is close, but a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for breaking it down. That's about the head math I had at the time, and there is now the $18 dead plus his raise, so if you assume he is equally likely to do this with both categories of hands, this becomes a call no?

Edit: it's 46:70 pot odds. So if I am not beat more that 2/3 the time it is a call. Who thinks I am beaten more than that?

Mercman572 · #8 03-02-2006, 04:00 PM

shameless bump

ajmargarine · #9 03-02-2006, 04:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Edit: it's 46:70 pot odds. So if I am not beat more that 2/3 the time it is a call. Who thinks I am beaten more than that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, it's going all-in on the river you know, so you should calculate with those numbers in mind. He's overplaying it pretty badly, so it seem doubtful that he has a boat. Meh, Meh, Meh. I'm not sure. It's probably close to neutral EV.

PS. Raise preflop.

Mercman572 · #10 03-02-2006, 04:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Meh, it's going all-in on the river you know, so you should calculate with those numbers in mind. He's overplaying it pretty badly, so it seem doubtful that he has a boat. Meh, Meh, Meh. I'm not sure. It's probably close to neutral EV.

PS. Raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah it's pretty likely it's going all in on the river, but a weaker 10 (and sometimes a slightly better one if he turns out to be a mouse) could likely check to me after the call scares him. Still, heat of the moment I can't do that much head math (I was actually impressed I was able to do this much 6 tabling).

On the raise preflop, Btn and big blind were uber loose passive and had been calling my raises and cb's so I was adjusting accordingly. My standard with hands like this when opponents are seeing a flop regardless is to not bloat a pot that they will likely call both preflop and flop with a better hand than mine.