a few interesting river stats

[MATT111]

a) river aggression: 1.76
b) W$SD when bet/raised/checkraised river: 80.22
c) folded to river bet: 41.38
d) W$SD when just called: 29.7
e) went to showdown: 36.07

[Flintoff]

1.4
79.6
35.6
32.3
36.3

[Erik W]

If we an equally distribution(don't know at all if true) of hands between 100%(nut hands) and 55% winning hands that gives us a number of (100+55)/2 = 77.5 which seems to be where everyone is.

If we add the pure bluffs the number should go south.
If the games are real agressive and you have to pay off the number should go up somewhat.

Mine is by the way 76.98.

The conclustion to draw is that a number over 77.5 should value bet some more and if you are 79 or more you value bet way too few times.

With the bluffing I think the number you want to achieve should be some lower than 77 but how much I have no idea.

Anyone have anything to add to this?

[SteveL91]

A) 1.71
B) 75.12
C) 36.65
D) 28.93
E) 35.5

[ST069]

Thx for the explanations Erik, but i still missunderstand something. My b (W$SD) is 79.3 and then means, according to you, that i value bet not enough. But on the other hand i have a a) (aggression factor)of around 2.50, that's really high compare to the others 2+2ers who have posted their stats. How can i bet and raise by far more than the others and still have a W$SD higher?

[baronzeus]

this is close to correct erik, but your assumptions only work for when you are in position. your % should be significantly lower when you are out of positon. i think somewhere between 70 and 75% is ideal overall, personally.

[Erik W]

Looking at your stats you need to go to showdown more often. You only take your really strong hands to SD and then your % naturally is a little higher.

[PokerPadawan]

W$SD when bet/raised/checkraised river: 76%

I never looked at this before. Thanks for the suggestion. Mine's probably a bit lower because I tend to bet really marginal hands these days and have been bluffing more at the weak tighties.

[efficacy]

I find it interesting that BZ's W$SD when just called is substantially lower than the average. BZ, are you paying off river raises more than the rest of us?

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it interesting that BZ's W$SD when just called is substantially lower than the average. BZ, are you paying off river raises more than the rest of us?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, i really pay off a lot (and maybe too much?)