easy river call, right?

[tannenj]

villain is 40/16/2, but over only about 30 hands.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $7</font>, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($15, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $11</font>, BB calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($37, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $33</font>, BB calls.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($103, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB is all-in $99.2</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: $301.4

[ImsaKidd]

Instacall. Can be worse 2 pair, slowplayed sets, desperate bluffs IMO.

[clownslayer2]

insta fold. straight.

[DanJ.]

instacall, too hard to put him on a 6.

[clownslayer2]

probably called the 5 extra with somethin like 4 6 suited, trying to hit a big flop. hes a donkey so he called the 11 into a 15 pot to hit his straight, maybe seeing if he could get a runner runner flush draw who knows. fold easy.

[DanJ.]

This is def not an easy fold. especially when the only 6 that plays this way is 64.

Like imsaKidd said, can be worse 2 pair, slowplayed set, desperate bluff.

[clownslayer2]

no way. he checked his straight on the turn and pushed on the river. hes a classic donkey. 4 6 suited trying to hit a huge flop. probably bored or somethin so called the raise. either way, you are beat.

[Haiku]

Donkeys also take the river shove line with big hands (two pair/sets) when scary cards come because they're so desperately praying their "big" hand is still good. How many times do you see a bad player shove his slowplayed set when the flush hits on the turn/river? Instacall this.

[tannenj]

mhing, the donk had 65o. pretty sure this is a call though.

[Bill Smith]

For all the people saying insta-whatever, stop it. This is a tough spot, and decisions for 50 BB matter.

30 hands doesn't tell us much about villian's postflop play. However, taking every bet/call at face value, it looks like villian was drawing at something from the flop. Unfortunately, there aren't many missed draws out there - this is pretty much either 2-pair, a straight or a bluff. What 2-pair hand can we expect here though? 7-5 and maybe 5-4 are about all that make sense, and 7-5 probably c/r's the turn.

As such, I think the range here is 76/65/54, MAYBE a set, or a complete bluff. However, our play suggests a big pair, and few would suspect top set. Villian can be pretty sure we don't have a 6, making us prone to a bluff, and his stats thus far indicate he may be capable of it.

In short, a call is probably slightly -EV even getting 2:1, but for metagame purposes it's probably necessary. Call, puke, and take good notes.