NL200 Bluff -- Spew?

[mlagoo]

Hey guys,

I'm at work so I don't have the HH with me, but I will try to recreate the hand.

Ok so first off, Villian in this hand is loose/aggressive/good. I've only been at the table for 10-15 hands or so, but that's my early read.

I have ~$210 at the start of the hand. Villian covers with like $800 or something.

UTG+1 limps, I raise to $10 with 88. Villian in the SB makes it $28. I figure his range at this point is something like AQs+, AKo, 99+. UTG+1 folds, I call.

Flop (Pot=$60):

A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB bets $38. I call.

Turn (Pot=$135):

7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villian checks. I push for ~$145.


Thoughts?

[Vammakala]

I think you could run it through with pokerstove after putting yourself on A2 and then inputting his range. Ie, he wouldn't call with anything than an ace that beats you. That should give pretty good answer I think.

I assume you called the flop with the intention of pushing the turn if he doesn't bet again? I probably wouldn't go on making this kind of plays without more solid read.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
I assume you called the flop with the intention of pushing the turn if he doesn't bet again?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah

[jbird]

So you are sacrificing this buyin so the table thinks you felt any pair then you are gonna use this against them later?

Nice.

Seriously though, after your flop call you kinda have to push this turn if checked to. That being said, he is smart and probably knows this, so he checks his AK and lets you bluff off your stack.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
So you are sacrificing this buyin so the table thinks you felt any pair then you are gonna use this against them later?

Nice.

Seriously though, after your flop call you kinda have to push this turn if checked to. That being said, he is smart and probably knows this, so he checks his AK and lets you bluff off your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really shoulda stoved this last night. If we can assume (and obviously these are difficult assumptions to make, which is why NLHE is fun) he'll play 99-AA this way 100% of the time, and he'll play AK this way 50% of the time, and he always folds 99-KK and never folds AK/AA, does he fold enough to make this bluff profitable? My gut says yes, which is why I shoved, but I haven't had the chance to double check. Anyway, I just thought it might be an interesting hand, and I also thought it might be total spewage, in which event I'd like that pointed out to me.

[Thoth]

I think the play is fine. There are many villains that bet the turn again with AK, so against an unknown AK now is a smaller part of his range.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the play is fine. There are many villains that bet the turn again with AK, so against an unknown AK now is a smaller part of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a tough spot without a read. I check the turn with AK a high % of the time to allow villain to take a stab.

OP -- Your rationale seems okay for making the play. It is a decent spot to try to take it awya. At worst, it's good for shania, at best you get a better hand (AJ) to fold.

[los_toros]

I like this mostly because he lead into the PFR and then checked behind on the flop. He almost always has a weak ace he doesn't want to felt for his stack, or a mid pp that thinks an ace just called his flop lead.

nh

[allaboutmyfetti]

Isn't this just villian runnign a stack-a-donk line on you?

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this just villian runnign a stack-a-donk line on you?

[/ QUOTE ]

a certain % of the time, yes.

how do you think villian plays the flop/turn with 99-KK?