I Decline a Value Bet? Wierd

[The Bryce]

PP 20/40, guy raises OTB, 35/20/1.7 guy who isn't so bad but obviously not so great calls in the SB, I 3 bet with QQ. Flop JT6 two hearts. I bet, BTN folds, SB calls. Turn blanks, I bet SB calls. River T hearts. He checks I check. Yes, no, maybe so?

[Surf]

hmm...most 35/25 types would pound the flop w/ a flush draw and a J, so the T seems more threatening because it's a T rather than bc it's a heart. Does he showdown too much? Against a shwodownmonkey i'm betting to get called by A-hi and small PPs...

this (obviously) depends heavily on what range you expect him to have when he c-cs the flop and turn. Is he sophisticated enough to c-c down Jx or a flush draw knowing he has precious little fold equity? Against most of tehse typse of players the line he took means he's pretty weak but wants to showdown, if that means it's Tx at worst I don't mind a check behind, if he's showing down too much I think you pretty much have to value bet.

Surf

[Victor]

so u are scared he will bluff checkraise the river at optimal freq?

[The Bryce]

No, if I was going to bet I'd bet / fold. It's one of those sucky things where I'm sure I give up a bit of money folding (so maybe I'd need to be good like 55%), but not enough to put a call in. I was just weighting away from a jack.

[veganmav]

The Bryce, can I tell you how I decide this?

I either have watched him play, and know how showdown bound he is.

Or, I look at his WTSD%, and decide how showdown bound he is.

What is his WTSD %?
How showdown bound is he?

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
so u are scared he will bluff checkraise the river at optimal freq?

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I bet and call a raise quick!

-DeathDonkey

[Moneyline]

This looks like a thin value bet, but a profitable one. A player with these stats could have been open-raising light with something like J7s, or might just be calling you down with something like 88. If raised I would call.

Just my opinion...

[sui generis]

I think the WTSD% should be a key factor. I agree with surf though that a guy with these stats is going to make a play on the flop/turn with a J or a flush/straight draw. He'll likely call down with a 6 and a marginal % of the time make a play with T's.

Unless the guy has a high WTSD% or is very passive with certain hands/reads, I don't see how he couldn't test the waters to see if his T's were good. I value bet this and fold to a river c/r. Some people have said to b/c this river, but I really don't see him being passive enough to call down second pair to then slowplay trips on the river.

-eric

[Victor]

all u guys spouting off on wsd% are way off unless we have like 10k hands on the guy. this stat converges super slow. still, in this hand it doesnt matter. dude is calling with a j and raising a 10 and theres plenty more jacks than tens so you dont even need to worry about crazy [censored] like ak and 99.

[MATT111]

What makes a value bet better is that there arent that many OESDs that may use T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as a scare card.
I still wouldn`t bet if I can`t find a safe fold to a raise.