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#11
04-24-2007, 08:20 PM
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Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
[ QUOTE ]
The call is cEV+, as you have significant pot odds. Due to final table payouts and your having a very favorable play of pushing yourself with 5xBB, I think I would pass. [/ QUOTE ] betgo, I agree it's an easy fold if I had 5bb after posting. Unfortunately I don't have 5bb, I have 3.5. 
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#12
04-24-2007, 08:21 PM
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Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
[ QUOTE ]
The call is cEV+, as you have significant pot odds. Due to final table payouts and your having a very favorable play of pushing yourself with 5xBB, I think I would pass. [/ QUOTE ] True betgo, but winning this hand essentially moves him up a spot and gives him a much much better shot of moving up more. If he folds this, one of the other short stacks gains a lot of chips (yes BB could still knock him out), and you may not even have a good opportunity to steal in the next orbit (when you need to). I think this is a call, although I can see arguments for folding.
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#14
04-24-2007, 08:24 PM
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Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
[ QUOTE ]
People ignoring BB's calling range are making a huge mistake. [/ QUOTE ] That's true, I completely mis-read his chip stack with so many digits. With him being soooooo big he should be calling reeeaaaaally wide here, where you're either a huge dog or at best a slight edge. This might make it a fold. I'm not positive though because you still aren't guaranteed a chance to steal, and if you don't get one in the next orbit you have no FE.
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#15
04-24-2007, 08:25 PM
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Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
I fold here because BB is getting a good price to knock people out and at 100r the BB is prob calling way too wide and we often have 3 outs when against 2 random hands.
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#16
04-24-2007, 08:41 PM
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Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
[ QUOTE ]
I fold here because BB is getting a good price to knock people out and at 100r the BB is prob calling way too wide and we often have 3 outs when against 2 random hands. [/ QUOTE ] shaun, against two random hands, we have a [censored] Ace. for all the Aces that have us drawing to three-outs, we have all the 3's, drawing to three-outs. Obviously, not all the 3's are calling, but the point is, if you start making BB's range really wide, it doesnt [censored] us up that much, cause our equity is enough to compensate.
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#17
04-24-2007, 08:46 PM
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Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
I don't have pokerstove on my here but A3o vs 2 random hands prob has really bad equity. I think you prob will endup with better equity with a lot of hands you would be surprised by and I think MP is not shoving any 2 here due to the fact that BB can and will call him really wide here.
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#18
04-24-2007, 08:47 PM
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Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
[ QUOTE ]
Payouts: 1st: 22.5k 2nd: 14.3k 3rd: 9.5k 4th: 6.5k 5th: 4.9k [/ QUOTE ] I'd be ecstatic that he's pushing with BB left to act, and try to double up another hand.
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#19
04-24-2007, 09:08 PM
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Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
28.961% 25.48% 03.48% 113052822 15420338.33 { A3o }
35.453% 33.25% 02.20% 147491193 9779268.83 { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o } 35.586% 33.04% 02.54% 146583892 11278788.83 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q6s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A2o+, K4o+, Q7o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
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#20
04-24-2007, 09:31 PM
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Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
Yeh, has anyone here heard of pot odds? I calculate you are calling 44K to win 71K, assuming BB folds. So you are getting 1.73-1 putting in 38% of the money. If BB calls, it may not be that big a disaster. When you consider you are about 50% versus the raiser's range, this is probably cEV+ enough to be a call.
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