Odds Q?

[Roadsweeper]

Hi all, sorry if this isnt in the correct section.

Basically what im asking,

say you chip heavy in a tournie and for sake of creating a picture you in the BB and the short stack in the SB goes all in.

What odds do you need to get to call with any two random cards?

[tsearcher]

This should go either in the probability forum or somewhere in the Tournament Poker forum. But no one will be able to answer your question any way. You haven't given enough information.

What is the payout structure? What is your stack size? What is Shorties stack size? What is your skill level? What is the buy in? How close are you to ITM?

[Hoffma]

I pitted 72o and AA against each other in pokerstove and this is what came out:

1,712,304 games 0.030 secs 57,076,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 12.578% 12.40% 00.18% 212248 3118.00 { 7c2d }
Hand 1: 87.422% 87.24% 00.18% 1493820 3118.00 { AhAs }

I guess that means that if everybody folded to SB shorty who pushes, and his push is less than 12.5% or one eighth of your stack, you could "correctly" call with any two. Probably a good idea on the bubble, even with 72s, for image if nothing else.

[AaronBrown]

While it depends on the situation and the player, there's a good chance he's pushing with anything. True, he's just posted his blinds and has a free trip round the table to pick his push spot. But this is his best opportunity because there's only one player left to beat. Also, he gives up the least in position here by pushing, because SB has the worst position after the flop anyway.

Say the blinds are $50/$100 and he started the hand with $200. If he folds in the SB, he has $150. If he pushes and you fold, he has $300. If he pushes and you call, he has a chance to win $600. The worst thing BB can do is call with K3o or better and fold with less, in which case SB averages $275, a lot better than the $150 from folding.

The worst hand you can have, 32o, wins about a third of the time against a random hand. So if you can call for half the pot or less, and you assume SB pushes on anything, you should call even with that. If you think SB would fold with some hands, you need better odds.

This does not address the tournament situation. As a large stack, you might walk away from a plus EV situation to avoid the variance. However, when you have the chance to push out a short stack, you can accept some negative EV. These are offsetting factors in this case. Which one is more important depends on the prize structure and remaining stacks. But basically, if your stack is bigger than his is small, you probably want to be a bit more cautious; but if his is smaller than yours is big, you probably want to be a bit more aggressive. If you are the biggest stack and he's the tenth smallest, don't bother making extra efforts to push him out. But if he's smallest and you're tenth largest, go for it on a close call.

[sputnik3000]

WOW