25NL Value Extraction with quads

[RapidEvolution]

I've got villain at 42/10/2 over 40 hands

I've been running 14/9/13



Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (MP2): $54.95
CO: $5
BTN: $24
SB: $24.75
BB: $24.40
UTG: $5.35
UTG+1: $27.75
MP1: $36.55

CO posts $0.10
Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP2)
2 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $0.50</font>, Hero calls $0.50, 4 folds

I opt to coldcall here since I've got position and I don't want to fold out the part of his range that I'm ahead of. I'm going to start making notes on what kinds of hands players call 3bets with. That way, if he'll call a 3bet pre without mining odds with a hand like 77, I can 3bet profitably.

Flop: ($1.45) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP1 bets $0.25</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.75</font>, MP1 calls $0.50

I flop the MF'in nuts and he makes an extremely small bet. I figure he's either got 99 and is trying to incite a raise war, or he's got a PP that wants to feel me out. I raise an amount that I think will get a reraise from 99, but won't necessarily fold out overpairs (or even underpairs).


Turn: ($2.95) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, MP1 calls $2

After he calls, I put him on a PP, or possibly some suited connector like T9s or 98s and he figures his 9 might be good. He checks, and I bet 2/3 of the pot. If he folds, that sucks, but he called my small flop raise, so I'm hoping to get a call.


River: ($6.95) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $X.

</font>
The river is so beautiful. It gives any T a straight, and if for some reason he was on the backdoor FD, it hit. He checks again and I'm left trying to figure out how much to bet. I'll post the rest of hand in a bit, but how much do you guys bet here? There's still a lot of money behind here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[xxrod17xx]

pot, my first instinct was over bet the pot but i think that might get him thinking about you being full. I pot if he raises I pause for a sec and shove.

[Brimstead]

half pot, hopefully he raises

[threads13]

Well, I probably wouldn't have raised the flop. This is a perfect slowplaying hand. Given that you raised, I would have raised more to try to get your stack in. That means you can bet more on the turn.

I think you can bet about 3/4 of the pot here. I wouldn't expect him to raise as his hands looks mostly like an overpair(or maybe 88-22 that thinks it is good).

You could make an argument for pushing as he may call often enough here with TT.

[Flups]

Bet $5.75, if he shoves he might have 9T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] but that could be considered a cooler me thinks, so I would call that. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

No, serious now. I would not overbet in this spot, because if opp. is sane he can't call that with the straight, just maybe with the flush. A normal valuebet hoping for the raise seems best. If villain is more passive, I would lean to potsize. Don't know if a smaller bet of half pot might get more value out of an aggro opp. by inducing a raise, think it might.

[Ulkis]

Timid villain, isn't he...

Obviously hero needs to maximize EV. And also not to maximize the chance MP1 calls but bet the amount that gives you the highest profit.

You have villain covered, looks to me villain has ~$33 left on the river.

If you bet 2/3P ie ~$5 and villain calls 50% of the time your expectation is $2.5, so if you go all in the villain needs to call only &gt;~7.5% of the time for all-in to be more profitable for you.

So I think betting big is better (even if my calcs may be slightly off but should be ball-parkish. one can also argue with the probability of villain calling, but I said only 50% because he looks very timid)

[King Spew]

On the flop, I'll pot raise him... and get called.

Then check behind on the turn.

After a check, I will Push or half villain's stack on the river.

This seems to get max value from the monsters.

[AllTheCheese]

Three-bet preflop. Its often correct to treat min raises as limps. Raise flop is 100% right. Bet 3/4 of the pot on river.

[RapidEvolution]

Wow. Does villain call a bet that big given that the pot is pretty small? I mean, in this instance pot would be roughly $5.50 on river and we'd be betting $17. Admittedly, I've been pretty aggro at the table, but is villain going to pay almost 70BB to see if I'm bluffing?

[Ulkis]

Well, if you change the probability of villain calling 2/3P to 80%, then villain still needs to call AI bet ~12% of the time for it to be better. Surely he will call 12% of the time? I think "correct" answer is somewhere between pot and AI.