Help me play this hand....

SixgunSam · #1 05-06-2006, 04:50 AM

This is from a Stars $20 180 player SnG. Chip leader had been solid, but not overly tight. I give him a standard range here of AK-AJs, maybe KQs, 77-AA. He will generally continuation bet, esepcially a board like this. How would you proceed?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP2 (t5760)
CO (t4735)
Hero (t6975)
SB (t2485)
BB (t2063)
UTG (t20540)
UTG+1 (t6865)
MP1 (t9220)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t600, 4 folds, Hero calls t600, 2 folds.

Flop: (t1375) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets t1000

HERO.......................?

frankster · #2 05-06-2006, 05:18 AM

I hate spots like this, for some reason I always know that the raiser has me dominated with a bigger pair and still I want to know for sure.

The problem here is that you can't raise without commiting yourself, so the question is pushing or folding. What was your gut telling you he was holding? I usually depend on my read here for a decision. You do have a gutshot to go with your overpair so even when he does have a higher pair, you still have 6 outs.

SixgunSam · #3 05-06-2006, 06:13 AM

Honestly, I wanted to continue because I like to gamble a little too much and somehow his play felt like AK and I had 6 outs if I guessed wrong. This hand would be a lot easier if I had a larger stack. I can't find out whether or not I have the best hand without getting pot-stuck. My chips stack is still in great shape even if I fold ( 6300 with 200/100 blinds )and I was really calling for set value in the first place. This hand felt really borderline to me, but maybe a better player would think this is an easy laydown or maybe an easy push. My gut tells me the best play here is a fold most of the time.

Spee · #4 05-06-2006, 08:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
HERO.......................?

[/ QUOTE ]

............comes right over the top and puts villain to a decision for the rest of his chips without a second thought.

Villain may have a bigger pair, but is more likely to have overs. One would typically not play a bigger pair so blantantly.

There is a good chance that your eights are good here, and you need to make Villain pay for the right to draw out on you.

If in the slight chance that you are dominated, you still have 6 outs to the nut straight or a likely winning set.

So in a double all in, you're likely to be something like a 3-1 fave, or at worst something like a 3-1 dog.

Bolero · #5 05-06-2006, 09:50 AM

If you are sure that he would play his big cards in this fashion, you might raise him but a meaningful raise will require about half your stack, so you might as well push here. You won't have enough left on the turn to take it away from him if he calls a raise, so get it all in now.

Otherwise, you can dump it now.

I probably dump it and try to pick on smaller stacks for awhile.

JCool · #6 05-06-2006, 10:42 AM

This is a very tough hand that's very read dependant IMHO. Lets assume for purposes of this discussion that 1/2 of the time he has a higher pp, 1/2 time 2 overs. (I am assuming this based upon the range you assigned in your op) Lets further assume that this is equally likely to be a value bet vs. a continuation bet. This is because if he has KK, you have lots of potential winning draws out there that he doesnt want you to get to for free. Therefore, we can conclude that on this flop, with this bet, against his range, you will be winning at this point roughly 1/2 of the time, losing 1/2 of the time. As for the 1/2 of the time you are behind, you will make the winning hand about 1/4 of that 1/2. This seems like a pretty good case for all-in to me, particularly in a Stars 20/180, where the play can be downright maniacal.