Theory - Late Stages

[chh]

I've been quite successful recently building a large stack early etc, but I dont seem to be able to make it to the final table (or near it).
Of course it's partly because I'm playing 2000+ tournaments so the way is gruelingly long. However the problem is that I dont feel like I'm actually any better than the rest of my table once the average goes down to about 10-13 bb.

a lot of times during this phase I will be moved to a new table since people bust out quite fast, so I will not have PTstats on villains, only their OPR stats (so at least I will be able to identify the best and worst players quickly)

How lightly do you steal in this scenario, how lightly do you resteal, do you ever squeeze?
I have never squeezed in my entire life, and I get restolen quite a bit more than I resteal myself (which obviously also means that my normal steals are less successful in this phase)
I like to think that I'm just getting unlucky recently during these phases, but it seems more likely that while I have a big edge early on, I just dont have one later on when stacks get small compared to the BB and thus getting to the final table would be by mere chance.

So basically lets say average is 40k, we have about 40k as well and the pot is around 3k to 4k to begin with (thus BB is 1500/2000).
In this situation obviously most pots will either be taken down pf or end in an all-in.

what's your stealing range on the co against an "average" player? What's your restealing range against someone who's rather active? against someone who rarely raises?
What's your range to do a squeeze? (assuming we are raising from the button)

I know these questions all depend on a lot of factors so it's not exactly possible to give good general answers, but some idea's would be really appreciated.

Also, I'm coming to think that I should be playing x/45s and x/180 till I feel really comfortable in these small M encounters, otherwise playing to the top10% in a huge tournament is mostly a waste of time and money, isn't it?

Chris

[Yoshi63]

What you are describing is an ability to play good poker with normal stacks (such as NL cash games), while struggling when the tournament enters the "endgame" stage. In MTT's with fields of 2000+ players, the endgame stage actually takes up a majority of the tournament. Basically anything beyond the first ~2 hours of play will fall under some varying degree of endgame.

If you haven't already, you undoubtebly MUST obtain a copy of HOH2...

http://www.amazon.com/Harrington-Expert-...7310&sr=8-2

This covers all the concepts you've asked. Once you've done so, things will start becoming more clear, and you'll slowly recognize different situations that you never did before.

Also, HOH1 is a very worthwhile read if you haven't already. It just doesn't cover what you're asking here.

[chh]

well I read HOH1-3 multiple times, however I'm still not feeling confident as to whether I'm playing well in this stage.

I am not really sure if I'm actually doing all that much wrong, it might just be a bad run of cards, or underestimating how many tries it really takes in huge tournaments to make the FT, however any further suggestions or discussions about this stage would be really great. (fwiw I score ~500 in HOH3 and 135 in the donkey test, so it's not like I havent read my books, I just dont feel comfortable with yellow-orange zone play so I think I might be lacking something)

[kurtkatt]

i really dont care much for our restealing range. more about the difference beetween their raising range and calling range. so looking for ppl that are raising plenty but backs down easily against 3bets more or less.

tight raisers just arent very profitable to resteal against but depending on position etc i obv very seldome fold 99+, aq+ anyhow but thats more for value unless we know they are supernits in every position.

squeezes, same obv with hand that might be best and does ok against calling ranges are good but other situations are what we need to find. where our FE are so high that our cards matters less.

i think that x/45 x/180 plan was good also. also even smaller sngs and stt forum can give u a lot of stuff to work with with low M stuff.

[tomek322]

Even once you're ITM, making a final table is hard. i.e, you generally have less than 1% of the chips in play. So you are still a long way. Seems like you are frustrated about that.

I don't squeeze with junk, everyone read HoH and people call squeezes light. IMO.

Re-steeling cards shouldn't matter you are banking the guy folds, but I try to have some sort of SC or Bways so if called you have a prayer.

[4CardStraight]

Some tips, take em or leave em.

First, Whenever we have less than say 30 or 40 bb in our stack, we need to be concious of those that can resteal against us. One thing I recommend is whenever we raise, we are subject to a resteal, so we need to make sure we are stealing enough to stay ahead, but not so much that we subject to be restolen from. Personally I have done a lot of math to know exactly where a hand is so good from a position that mathematically its highly likely to be the best hand at the table, and in this range I play pretty tight.

First tip, make restealing from you unprofitable: How? Relatively easy in concept, hard in practice. Try to never allow your raising range to be more than double your calling range. If you find yourself "raising any two" from the button, but only calling with a premium, thats a problem. If you are only willing to call with a top 7% hand from a position, then only raise 14%, (just as a rough guideling, thought experiment), it means that for someone to resteal from you they need to be laying greater than 2 or 3 to 1 on their wager, and since you half the time will have a hand your felting, they arent getting proper odds (appx)

Second tip: When you get under 20bb in your stack you need to be constantly watching for resteals. Wether you are in a hand or not. Whether your stack size allows for it or not. IF your stack is under 20bb and someone raises, ask yourself, if someone behinds him pushes, what are the chances he folds? This is a thought exercise that can really help your play. Whenever you are in this range, if you see a raise, and then a push, ask yourself what are the odds this guy makes a call or folds? Practice practice practice... Your ability to find situations will improve. You will start to notice players that Raise too loose, but call too tight. Thats the optimal resteal. Our stack size is 11bb to 19bb and we see a late position raiser (or any raiser enticed to raise wide), and we are in the blinds maybe, here the stack sizes and positions matter a lot more than our cards. If I have decent cards also, I may consider making a Stop and Go play, where if I am towards the lower end of the stack size for a resteal, and my cards have decent showdown equity (like an ace), then I will call from the sb/bb and push any flop.

Third tip: Don't waste valuable fold equity, and get maximal amounts called when we have low stacks. I open push probably earlier than most MTT'ers. Its certainly a debateable point, but personally I really dont raise if my stack size gets under 12bb. I open push. I play relatively tight here, like I would fold low pocket pairs from the first 3 position, but a hand like AJ from middle position with 12bb should really just be open pushed. Raising to 3 and then having to fold on the flop just sucks, two out of three flops we dont connect and then we will only have 9bb which hardly is enough to even get fold equity. This situation/hand in my book calls for just an open push. We dont mind if they all fold. We dont mind if they call too loose and we flip for stacks against 77, but what we dont want to have happen is have AT or KQ behind us flat call a raise and blow us off our hand on the flop.

Fourth tip, any time we are middle or late game, don't raise out of the small blind. Like if it folds to you, either your hand is way better than the random hand in the BB and we push, or its not and we can fold our blind to him. Maybe with a mix of calls. Maybe if stacks are really big yet we raise... But by in large dont play from the small blind much. Worst position. Making a raise here is usually easily called by the big blind with almsot any cards since he's mostly priced in and gets to play you heads up with position on you. If stacks are thin its quite a disaster. Same with when theres a bunch of limpers, and were in the small blind. If we raise, they are enticed to call due to the price and overlay in the blinds and they have position on us in a raised pot. Its very hard to win oop. Its hard to get more money in when we out flop them, and its really hard to steal the pot when we don't. I usually play all in or fold from the SB, mid to late in tournies.

Fifth tip: Really really really, work on learning proper hand strength by position. Most people dont get it very well. Most people see AJ late game and think its likely the best hand at the table. Its not. If theres a raise in front of you, or if you are in the first three position, AJ is unlikely to be the best hand dealt. If the stacks dont warrant an open push, I will often muck a hand like AT or AJ from utg or utg+1. Same with 77 or 88. Some people say its weak, I say, do the math. 9 handed, 14bb stack. Open push 88 from utg, or raise it but fold to a shove, either way the math doesnt work out in your favor. Sure we steal the blind some percent, and sure we end up the large end of a coin flip some percent.. but with 8 people yet to act the odds of one of them having 99-AA are actually good enough that our bet is bad.

Hope this provides a few things to consider, even if you reject my thoughts entirely.

4Card

[levAA]

i know what you mean - and this is a basic problem of these very large MTTs with blinds going up quite fast.

as you have mostly preflop decisions with a low M, you might have an edge of 60-70% against worse players.

this means in a tourney, when 1000 are left and everyone plays the same level you will reach the final table 1 time in 100.

if you are a better player, 1 time in 50 or if you are very good 1 in 30.

so the variance of your roi is enourmous in large MTTs - if you win it it's great, but you might have 300-500 tourneys to go until you win again, and during that time your ROI goes down steadily.

depending on how many of these events you play, an observation period of 1 year might be to less(!) to get a good average ROI.

[chh]

Yeah, exactly. I know I have my holes, mostly self-control/concentration which sometimes leads to calling too much.
But mostly I'm playing decent TAG poker.

Last year I made a nice profit before the law change, but actually playing mostly during european hours (thus 200-800 players maybe). Post law change I focused on studying for half a year, but after playing again for a few months I dont exactly feel rusty. It's just that I never actually did much restealing back then either, just playing solid values.

Now I tend to adjust more to the american hours since action on stars is quite dry otherwise, so I usually end up in these huge 2000 player thingies and probably I'm just too spoiled from my results last year that I feel like I'm doing something wrong when I make the money 10 times but never FT.

4card, I really love your post, it emphasizes a lot of things I already do know, but also inspires thought. Did you actually ever put together a table with what hand is likely to be best in what position? I am probably quite easily exploitable since I DO steal lightly, esp from bu, co and co+1. However I probably call very tightly, especially with highcards and thus it's not a rare thing that I start off with a decent stack, get restolen 2-3 times, and suddenly I'm quite short. This certainly feels like a leak. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Also, is there any good articles or whatever discussing resteals? I just reviewed HoH and whilst he talks a lot about red zone play, there isnt really anything about restealing. What are hands you prefer to smooth call with as opposed to restealing?

[chh]

[ QUOTE ]

Second tip: When you get under 20bb in your stack you need to be constantly watching for resteals. Wether you are in a hand or not. Whether your stack size allows for it or not. IF your stack is under 20bb and someone raises, ask yourself, if someone behinds him pushes, what are the chances he folds? This is a thought exercise that can really help your play. Whenever you are in this range, if you see a raise, and then a push, ask yourself what are the odds this guy makes a call or folds? Practice practice practice... Your ability to find situations will improve. You will start to notice players that Raise too loose, but call too tight.



[/ QUOTE ]

Let me check if I get the WHY right:
Basically the conclusion I draw from this is to look at the called resteals to take notes both on how lightly the resteal was done, and if the original raisor called too lightly with too bad odds and then adjust to what these 2 gus have done during further play. Or if the resteals are always folded with good odds, take note of that as well.
Is there anything else I'm missing?

[4CardStraight]

Resteals are really about a very simple issue, and this is why we do what I suggest in the second tip. We are looking for players that both Raise too loose, AND call too tight. Why I am taking notes is, if I see a guy call with QTo after he raises and gets shoved on, well, I will not ever be restealing with junk on that guy, but I will certainly 3bet him slightly wider for Value. Likewise if I see a guy fold to a 3bet after raising, then I am slightly more inclined to resteal from him. It also lets me identify who at the table are the restealers. People that resteal dont do it just once and never again, they often become habitual restealers. This is pretty easy to discern, because the range at which we can 3bet for value is so incredibly tight. People only get 3% top hands after a raiser so often. If I see someone 3bet twice inside of three orbits, well... odds are pretty good they are light restealing as opposed to just getting good cards. These people I will generally call with anything I had raised with.


Do I really have charts made for where my hand is mathematically the best? Yes, several... I have a jam or fold chart that I use for 20bb, 15bb, 10bb, and 5bb. But this alone does not make my play completely algorithmic or anything. These charts simply show me which hands are more +chipEV to open push as opposed to fold. They arent perfect for several reasons. First, they assume that opponents are calling me optimally, which they dont. As a general rule people call too tight. Second, they assume a stance of +chipEV and not +$EV, my chips in my stack are worth more than the ones I can win (see sklansky), and therefore my chips have a premium. Note also that these first two major issues counterbalance. My opponents are too tight from optimal, but my chips are worth more, so I should be pushing slightly looser for reason one, but slightly tighter for reason two. Third, They only show wether open pushing is more +cEV than folding. Open raising might be the most +cEV, and these tables dont discuss that.

The reason I find them quite valuable is the insight they provide. Most people have no idea just how tight you need to be in the first couple positions, due to the math odds of someone having a hand that dominates you, multiplied by the number of opponents yet to act. Secondly, most people have no idea just how wide you can open push from button or small blind with relatively small stacks. Third, those that do recognize how wide you should be pushing late often adopt a push any two strategy, and this only works for so long, since our opponents can adjust to our play. I find that if I really open push from the charts, that it automatically finds a good balance, of pushing enough to stay ahead of the curve, yet not pushing so much that it affects my opponents play. These hands from the charts allow me to simply not care if I get called behind or not. Even if I am called optimally, its +EV push to the tune of margin of error of the blinds, so whatever. And finally, at the top end there are hands that I want to encourage action, and these can be balanced by hands slightly under the range that I can raise steal without open pushing.

4card