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#131
06-09-2006, 05:33 PM
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Re: Stop and Go with AK
Let's say you're drunk and you offer your friend a bet. You'll give him $10 if coin comes up heads three times in a row, and he gives you $1 if it doesn't.
Would you rather your friend take the bet or not take the bet? 
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#132
06-09-2006, 05:48 PM
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Re: Stop and Go with AK
I only browsed the thread, but I think I agree with Steve.
The way I see it, most of the time it wont matter, the chips go in regardless, so we ignore those times. Also, I think it is safe to ignore any time he folds preflop. So the only thing that matters is when he folds. There are very few flops where he is correct to fold. There is no way he is making the distinction between the hands that it is correct vs not correct often enough where folding is the right play for him. So, if he folds, most likely he will be making a mistake. Which is good for us. The CEV difference between pushing and SNG has to be miniscule, but I would be very suprised if it wasn't positive. Also, I think the assumption that a player would never fold post flop is wrong. I have seen playing fold <2xBB a few times in this spot. I once saw a player fold leaving himself <.5xBB, people really dont understand a lot of the basics we take for granted.
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#133
06-09-2006, 05:57 PM
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Re: Stop and Go with AK
[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you're drunk and you offer your friend a bet. You'll give him $10 if coin comes up heads three times in a row, and he gives you $1 if it doesn't. Would you rather your friend take the bet or not take the bet? [/ QUOTE ] this is highly irrelevent. 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2
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#134
06-09-2006, 05:58 PM
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Re: Stop and Go with AK
[ QUOTE ]
I'm still not clear as to why a stopngo is better when we are probably better than 60/40 against villain's range. [/ QUOTE ] Just because we are in a +cEV situation with a push doesn't mean that we can't find a more +cEV situation. Brad
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#135
06-09-2006, 06:02 PM
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Re: Stop and Go with AK
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm still not clear as to why a stopngo is better when we are probably better than 60/40 against villain's range. [/ QUOTE ] Just because we are in a +cEV situation with a push doesn't mean that we can't find a more +cEV situation. Brad [/ QUOTE ] So, giving villain an avenue of escape when we are better than 60/40 is (more) +EV?
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#136
06-09-2006, 06:03 PM
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Re: Stop and Go with AK
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Let's say you're drunk and you offer your friend a bet. You'll give him $10 if coin comes up heads three times in a row, and he gives you $1 if it doesn't. Would you rather your friend take the bet or not take the bet? [/ QUOTE ] this is highly irrelevent. 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 [/ QUOTE ] Hard to find non-poker situations that are relevant to poker, but I tried. Basically, if he doesn't fold, we get 60% equity of the total pot (pot size after we match villain's bet + our bet + villain's call). If he does fold, we get 100% equity of the total pot. Screw around with the math a little bit (or just think about the fact that poker's a 0 sum game), and you'll see that we'd prefer a call in this spot exactly when villain would be making a mistake by calling. Since in this case villain would be getting the correct odds to call a push, we want to encourage him to fold. Stop + going does that, so that's the correct play.
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#138
06-09-2006, 06:11 PM
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Re: Stop and Go with AK
I can't believe this thread is so long. 1, obviously OP's line is better than pushing PF in theory; 2, in practice the two plays are virtually indistinguishable, i mean maybe you gain like 50 CEV by doing the SnG.
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#139
06-09-2006, 07:03 PM
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Re: Stop and Go with AK
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm still not clear as to why a stopngo is better when we are probably better than 60/40 against villain's range. [/ QUOTE ] Just because we are in a +cEV situation with a push doesn't mean that we can't find a more +cEV situation. Brad [/ QUOTE ] So, giving villain an avenue of escape when we are better than 60/40 is (more) +EV? [/ QUOTE ] You are playing 1/2 NL heads up with 500,000 BB stacks. Villain raises to $10 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], you call with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Flop is 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. A series of raises and re-raises sees Villain put in $999,999. You shove, it costs him $1 to call into a pot of $1,999,999. You are obviously an overwhelming favorite, but Villain could go runner runner perfect to split the pot with you, an unfortunate turn of events that would cost you a million dollars. Wouldn't you prefer he took you up on this avenue of escape, even though you have greater than 99% equity on the last dollar in Villain's stack?
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#140
06-09-2006, 08:18 PM
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Re: Stop and Go with AK
This thread is kind of ridiculous, I didn't read all the replies but we need some serious fundamentals here it seems.
Suppose You have 100xbb, your opponent has 100x as well. He open raises to 99 bbs, you raise all in with 100bbs with AA. Do you want him to call with the extra 1 bb? No, you do not want him to call at all, no matter what he has. That is a gross exageration, but it is the same general concept here. If villain is getting proper pot odds (even if we have a huge edge) we still want him to fold. If he is getting incorrect pot odds then we want him to call. Fundamental Theorem of Poker, very, very, simple.
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