NL 100: Butchered a hand. Am I a moron for considering this call?

[Pokerdemic]

I butchered this every which way I could have. Villain is 23/18/7 over 120 hands. Hero's image is about 19/17/3 and tight UTG. The flop was a huge mistake. I don't know wtf I was thinking with the size of the flop bet with an overpair in a 3way pot. Should have been more like 11 or 12, but I was in two other big pots at the time and messed up.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $154.05
MP: $51.40
CO: $161.40
BTN: $116.90
SB: $97.50
BB: $93.50

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $4, SB folds, BB calls $3

Flop: ($12.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, BTN calls $8, BB folds

Turn: ($28.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $16</font>, BTN calls $16

River: ($60.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $17</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $67</font>, Hero thinks at this point that his bet looked like a scared blocking bet (which it was), and the aggressive villian decided to bluff the scare card.

Given button's aggression, hero is wondering what J would be in his range, given that hero raised UTG. There's a busted FD out. I would have hear from 88/22/33 before the river. And if villain had the J, what is he putting Hero on that he will think he would get a $50 river call. Easy fold here?

[SnglMaltScotch]

Wow, you are harder on yourself than I am on myself. You played it fine. $10 might be better on the flop especially with 3 opponents. Maybe $20 on the turn. River was a bit wimpy. You can b/f here but bet at least $40. No matter how you played it, I think you have to fold the river. JT/QJ/sets are much more likely than air.

SMS

[lowpockets]

The only time you would want to lead this weak on the river, imo, is when you are trying to induce a push/big raise. If calling a push/big raise is something you don't want to do, then a check is much better here I think. I think you need to be checking or at least making a real bet here to make your decision easier.

[AceMason]

How is CC river to induce bluffs from missed draws? Only thing is you get no value from 99 or TT, but it's iffy they call after betting three streets.

[Pokerdemic]

[ QUOTE ]
The only time you would want to lead this weak on the river, imo, is when you are trying to induce a push/big raise. If calling a push/big raise is something you don't want to do, then a check is much better here I think. I think you need to be checking or at least making a real bet here to make your decision easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

As soon as I made the bet, I thought it should have been bigger so as not to induce a bluff and therefore a raise would be an easy fold. c/c a reasonable bet is also much better than the line I took. But once at this spot, what are the chances I have induced a bluff?

[RUDIKULOUS]

c/c the river is a lot better than b/f. every draw missed and a lot of his made hand range that he is calling with is beating you now anyway. And obv bet sizing wasn't good.

Edit: I probably fold the river unless you know hes really aggro.

[Speedlimits]

bet sizing is off on every street
check river. call depending on size.

[xeanatic]

Bet the turn bigger imo.
c/c river is better than b/f and c/f is to weak I think vs this opponent.
He's range does include J's but also missed flush draws that could draw at a cheap prices wich he will be bluffing with on the river. so c/c imo

[lowpockets]

[ QUOTE ]
what are the chances I have induced a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is kind of the point. There is no way for you to know this. So you have kind of put yourself in a bad spot - which you want to avoid by not making these kinds of bets.