Bet sizing with the nuts SUPER deep at 2/4

goofyballer · #1 11-27-2007, 03:52 AM

Villain is like 85/13. He had like $1600 when I sat, busted it all, rebought and built it up to $2.2k, and now finds himself about even with me at $1700. Pretty much my whole stack came from him; he constantly makes retarded bluffs and I went into typical calling station mode and picked him off a ton.

Almost all of his bet sizes since he started tilting have been pot-sized bets. He's done stuff like check-shove in a re-raised pot with 82s on 632 flop, call down with 55 on a T82Q board and randomly open-pot the T river; pot-raised QJ on the turn of a 4-way 762J pot after the flop got checked around and called a shove; basically, he loves putting money in the pot.

Villain was randomly pulling LRRs a fair amount preflop, so that's why I limped behind; plus he's shown he's perfectly happy to spew away chips in unraised pots anyway.

So, all that said: how much do I raise to here? Assuming he calls and the river bricks, how much do I bet?

MP ($1761.50)
CO ($887)
Hero ($1785.90)
SB ($429.10)
BB ($535.60)
UTG ($400)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($16) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP bets $16, Hero calls $16, SB calls $16, BB calls $16.

Turn: ($80) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP bets $80, Hero raises to...

wdead · #2 11-27-2007, 03:56 AM

given description of villain I think you should bet anyhere from 1x to 1.5X pot and on river either pot it or just shove.

Dan Terra · #3 11-27-2007, 03:56 AM

sweet thread goofyballer real tuff spot

Kirkrrr · #4 11-27-2007, 03:57 AM

I'd make the standard x3 raise, so make it 240 straight. I know we want to "get his whole stack" but if you get greedy and just bomb the turn even he will realize that it's time to find a better spot and fold. Bet whatever you think he'll call on the river, given his tendencies prolly around 440'ish.

Thinking about this some more, you can also make a good argument for just calling - it's a completely rainbow board so there's just not that many cards that will kill your action and you still have 2 more players to act behind you that can also tag along and bloat the pot... which is very important considering Villain's attachment to pot-sized bets. One thing about guys like this that I've learned is they will betbetbet if they encounter no resistance, but will rarely get into 4-betting wars once someone comes alive and raises, so in this case I'd probably just call and let him keep the initiative given board texture.

Kirk

DJ Sensei · #5 11-27-2007, 03:57 AM

raise it pre when you're this deep in position, so that when you make the nuts against him the pot is already a bigger size, and so when you dont have the nuts you can steal it from him if necessary.

turn I'd raise to like 320 or so. If he's got a good piece it sounds like he's not going anywhere, and if he doesn't its not like you can make more by raising smaller. If he calls and river bricks, make it close to a PSB for the same reasons.

Eagles · #6 11-27-2007, 04:13 AM

Goofy,
My guess is you made a pottish shize turn raise and he folded. Its not your fault its just he didn't have that strong a hand.

Triumph36 · #7 11-27-2007, 04:15 AM

everyone's going to say the standard, because there's no real reason to do otherwise.

terp · #8 11-27-2007, 04:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Goofy,
My guess is you made a pottish shize turn raise and he folded. Its not your fault its just he didn't have that strong a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

he's not noob enough to do that dude.

i think this is actually a worthwhile inquiry. the dude is playing five of six hands dealt to him and all he's done so far is potted twice in a limped pot. since so little of his range has hit this board hard, it's worth trying to get value out of the segments that are semibluffing, etc.

how much do we think this kind of muppet calls with a naked ten? a jack?

dj is probably right though...

bigbabyjesus · #9 11-27-2007, 04:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
everyone's going to say the standard, because there's no real reason to do otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'm the only one that wants to make a pretty huge raise to like $400 or $500. This guy is a grade A huge donk. KJ looks pretty [censored] good to him.

Xaston · #10 11-27-2007, 04:27 AM

Raise to $260. Check-raise the river.