400NL - NFD in 3bet pot, deep

[willw9]

Villain here is RICHMAN13, running 22/10/1 over 250. We don't have that much history, although he seems pretty average. Earlier we played this hand:

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $394
SB: $354.25
BB: $442.80
UTG: $80.50
MP: $600.90
Hero (CO): $409

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG calls $4, <font color="red">MP raises to $18</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $64</font>, 4 folds, MP calls $46

Flop: ($138) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $90</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $536.90 and is All-In</font>, Hero calls $255 and is All-In

Turn: ($828) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($828) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $828 Pot ($3 Rake)
MP showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Queens) and WON $825 (+$416 NET)
Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$409 NET)

What's your line on the turn and why?

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $406.10
BTN: $419
SB: $404.50
BB: $60.90
UTG: $992.90
Hero (MP): $808.95

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $14</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $48</font>, 4 folds, UTG calls $34

Flop: ($102) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $72</font>, UTG calls $72

Turn: ($246) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks

[JackAll]

He doesn't have a set, but I dunno if he folds here when we bet. And we are deep. I sill think I bet it. Something like $180 (or more if you think more has more FE and is still believable).


The pot on the river will be ~600 with $500 behind. I wonder if betting a little less and pushing river for closer to a pot size bet is better when we miss? Like if we bet $160 which means pot of 585 and 535 behind which is a big fkn bet and more scary than 600 with 500 behind?

[Barrin6]

$230

[olof86]

[ QUOTE ]


The pot on the river will be ~600 with $500 behind. I wonder if betting a little less and pushing river for closer to a pot size bet is better when we miss?

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about what we're representing.. would we push an overpair when the river bricks?

I think I'd check this turn, don't hate a bet though.

and btw, hand nr 1 is an easy check behind imo.

[WelshChip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


The pot on the river will be ~600 with $500 behind. I wonder if betting a little less and pushing river for closer to a pot size bet is better when we miss?

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about what we're representing.. would we push an overpair when the river bricks?

I think I'd check this turn, don't hate a bet though.

and btw, hand nr 1 is an easy check behind imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

or fold if you bet ( hand 1) hand 2 really doesnt matter what you do

[jessica1994]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


The pot on the river will be ~600 with $500 behind. I wonder if betting a little less and pushing river for closer to a pot size bet is better when we miss?

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about what we're representing.. would we push an overpair when the river bricks?



[/ QUOTE ]
you're implying here that villian is going to call down with some PP so why wouldn't be bet a river brick with an overpair?

[olof86]

true, but the fact still remains that we do not got the overpair. My point was more that a rivershove should often represent a bigger hand then QQ+.. and we won't be having those hands very often. Maybe I'm wrong?

[wrkingtobegreat]

[ QUOTE ]
$230

[/ QUOTE ]

[JackAll]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


The pot on the river will be ~600 with $500 behind. I wonder if betting a little less and pushing river for closer to a pot size bet is better when we miss?

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about what we're representing.. would we push an overpair when the river bricks?

I think I'd check this turn, don't hate a bet though.

and btw, hand nr 1 is an easy check behind imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless he is a total moneky, he won't stack off 200bb's deep with an overpair often. A big bet on both turn and then river push will also make QQ fold, and a high percent of the time KK (I think) and even AA a far from insignificant per cent of the time. If you have AA here and someone gets 200bb's in, you will be thinking 'wtf ... who does this with less than AA?'). And on top of that, he has no flush re-draws, so he may well fold turn a lot of the time too.


NB. I could be way way off ... just speculating.

[Barrin6]

I agree with Jackall.