NL25 - How to play AA on dangerous board

[Jw513]

Been at this table for a bit. Villain plays tight, 3bets pf with strong hands, and never bluffs or goes out of line.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($34.10)
Hero ($25.10)
MP ($26.05)
CO ($44.50)
Button ($15.10)
SB ($20.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A.
Hero raises to $0.85</font>, MP raises to $2.9</font>, 4 folds</font>, Hero raises to $8.35</font>, MP calls $4.60.

Flop: ($16.20) K, 5, Q (2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks.

Turn: ($16.20) T (2 players)</font>
Hero bets $7</font>, MP calls $7.

River: ($30.20) 5 (2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks.

Final Pot: $30.20

At preflop, villain insta-3bets, but he took like 15 sec to call my 4bet. I didn't like this flop, because I lose to QQ/KK, which he can easily have. He checks behind on the flop so I'm thinking he doesn't have KK/QQ. At the turn, I decided to make a small bet to see where he's at. He calls. I put him on AK/JJ now. I think if he had a set he would have raised by now. River goes check check. I had $10 left and was going to call any bet, based on my reads, and pot odds were good. Did I play this well? Anyone prefer a check on the turn?

[DonManuel]

I like it. I'm definitely pot controlling the flop or the turn. I like your river check if you are calling a bet.

The fact that he checks behind the flop does not mean he does not have KK/QQ. It actually means he could have those. He's definitely betting a K and maybe a Q, so I think that you're wa/wb. The turn is a bad card. If I get raised on the turn I fold.

[woohoo88]

I think I shove the river because JJ/AK might call but probably won't bet and it doesn't matter if you're behind because you're calling a shove anyway (assuming he bets with everything that beats you).

[DonManuel]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I shove the river because JJ/AK might call but probably won't bet and it doesn't matter if you're behind because you're calling a shove anyway (assuming he bets with everything that beats you).

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I think c/c the river is more profitable

[bulldawgblue]

I don't mind your line up until the river. I don't like checking with the intention of calling any bet. Since the board paired he's not betting any of his two pair hands. The only hand I could maybe see him betting the river with is QQ, and he'd have to be pretty tight to not raise the turn.

Push river, hands you're ahead of (that would check behind) will look you up.

[woohoo88]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I shove the river because JJ/AK might call but probably won't bet and it doesn't matter if you're behind because you're calling a shove anyway (assuming he bets with everything that beats you).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think c/c the river is more profitable

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..why?

[bulldawgblue]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I shove the river because JJ/AK might call but probably won't bet and it doesn't matter if you're behind because you're calling a shove anyway (assuming he bets with everything that beats you).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think c/c the river is more profitable

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Does any hand he beats really bet this river? (MAYBE AK)

[Lego05]

I like checking the flop.

Bet a bit more on turn.

Shove river.



BTW:

(and you might get a call or two from JJ or maaybe even AQ sometimes especially since flop was checked.)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,870 games 0.005 secs 2,574,000 games/sec

Board: Ks 5h Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.097% 45.88% 04.22% 5905 542.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 49.903% 45.69% 04.22% 5880 542.50 { AcAs, KcKd, KcKh, KdKh, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, AcKc, AcKd, AcKh, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh }

[Check_The_Nuts]

if he has AK and is playing it for a check on the flop he won't bet the river.

I probably shove the turn or the flop, not sure which. 4bet pot I'm never folding, so its better to get the money in to maximize value.

The problem with not shoving at some point is if he had KK or QQ on this river he would shove 100% of the time and I'm pretty sure you would call every time.

[DonManuel]

I think AK/AQ/KQ would have bet the flop/raised the turn. I think his range is KK/QQ/JJ/TT/AJ/XcYc and some other weird hands (depending on how bad he is). He is not calling with JJ/clubs, but he might bluff with them