300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...

[keikiwai]

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I def agree man they missed the point of the thread. TBH I don't think its a great spot to induce a bluff although I'm guilty of this mistake alot as well. I think you know the answer to this, next time make sure you got top 2 before checking to induce when villains got that large of a stack. Otherwise just keep this play for when villain has about one psb left.

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I think this is a perfect spot to induce a bluff for a few reasons:
1. Villain seems to be aggressive on the river.
2. There's tons of busted draws he can have.
3. Very few made hands can call a river bet, since any flopped paired need to be worried about the overcards that came on the turn and river.

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agree w/ all this
but personally i'm always paranoid of oesds, esp. on boards where oesfds are possible
since it just hit on the river i'd be more inclined to bet fold

also villain could have a Q he can call w/ if he has club Queens

[blah-blah-blah]

since he's more on the aggro side I'd say that he's more likely to play a very big draw like 89cc fast so I say call cuz i think his range is something like 89o, 89s not cc, and busted flushes/busted 5x.

[FishSticks]

I really feel anyone saying to bet/fold the river here is being kind of results oriented. A million draws missed, and if he was just *flat calling* that drawy flop with a made hand, it's very likely his made hand is weak and can't call 3 streets. Also, with those stats, this guy seems quite likely to bluff.

It's a clear check/call IMO, it's just the last thing we expected here was an overbet shove. He bets 75 on the end, or even pots it for 95, I snapcall and feel good about how the money went in. The overbet obviously changes the situation, since it's a pretty rare situation.

River overbets are generally a nuts/air situation. I mean, no one is really going to be overbet shoving the river with a lone pair of queens they picked up trying to make it look like a bluff and induce a hero call. In general, he's either got something huge, or he's got nothing.

There's tons of nothing we beat - any busted flush or straight draw being the vast majority of it.

Better two pair: Unlikely, maybe QcTc
Sets: You'd think he'd raise the flop in position multiway with this sketchy board. Still possible tho. This guy might not 3bet TT preflop with those stats, and could easily get to the river this way with TT and then pull this. Probably the main hand I'm worried about if I'm beat.

Straights: Again I'd think he'd have raised somewhere, but it's not impossible.

So, yah - there's some flukey stuff out there that you lose to for sure, but this guy very loose and is super aggro on the river and the tons of different ways he could have air seem more likely than the ways he beats you here. Think you gotta make the call.

[rakes.a.beach]

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It's a clear check/call IMO, it's just the last thing we expected here was an overbet shove. He bets 75 on the end, or even pots it for 95, I snapcall and feel good about how the money went in.

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I probably call here because villian is 50/10.

[goofyballer]

YOU HAVE SOME BALLS SIR, HOPE THAT WORKED OUT FOR YOU, PRETTY READ-DEPENDENT PLAY SO I DUNNO HOW MUCH ADVICE WE CAN REALLY GIVE; LOOKS LIKE YOUR GUT THOUGHT HE WAS FOS SO SOUNDS GOOD THEN

[jc1418]

I agree that with the board playing out the way it did and the range you can put your opponent on that this is a great spot to induce a bluff. I just don't think the stack sizes make for a great spot. I dont know i just see alot of posts on here about someone trying to induce a bluff from villain then he overshoves the pot massively. The fact that this is a nuts or air situation makes me rethink checking the river this deep compared to the pot. Maybe Im being a pussy and need to check call overshoves more often. I just dont get why everyone checks to induce a bluff when their opponent has alot left then asks if this is standard. Perhaps this is something i need to add to my game, but doesnt this make slowplaying the nuts on a drawy board very profitable for your opponent? Do you always call large overbets here or do you sometimes fold?

[jc1418]

there is tons that we beat but how much of those busted draws comprise his range for overbet shoving this much? At this point i play it the same way alot and end up calling, just havent been happy with what ive seen in similar situations with overbet shoving on this type of board. I call overbet shoves in spots where the board isnt this drawy, but the betting pattern is kinda funky. I have just found in my experience that an overbet this large to a check on the end on this board is usually nuts more than air. I dont think you can say well it either nuts or air, so its 50 50 and just call it down all the time. I find that its more nuts than air here. DO you ever check to induce here then fold if he bets this big? is that the best play then, to check call any reasonable bet and fold to something this big or you call them all?

[TonyZ]

Well if that is a river bluff nice call. I don't see what you can beat here, besides a bluff. I don't think he would have pushed with air. You have to really think about would he just push with air instead of betting a large amount?


When you look at the river bet, do you think you can beat a non-bluff? I think I would have bet the river, and if he pushed obv. your beat and you have some sort of read. But when a player just pushes, you have no read. I think you could have bet a small amount, and called a raise. But I really dislike a call on that river.

[docnuclear]

I really like how you played it.
Results ?

[SirFelixCat]

I love the way you played this and I'm sure you had every intention of calling up to a PSB. But wow, that's pretty sick.

I think this is one of three hands: 89, TT, or air. And you'd think he'd open for a raise w/ TT. So it's either 89 or air. I think I call this river in the heat of the moment, but I really don't like it and I expect to lose way too often for this to be profitable. Should we call here? I don't think so.

It's a limped pot and we only have invested 1/6th of our stack. Again, it's a sick overbet and I like that you induced the bet on the end, but not for that much. In the end I think this is a fold, but I might be compelled to call it in the heat of battle....