deep river spot with "obvious" aces $10-$20

[RoundTower]

Results:
I folded. As everyone points out it is very difficult for me to be ahead here, even with the good price.

I was considering raising instead. I think if he folds the nut flush this is clearly profitable. But for that to happen he has to put me on exactly KKxx and I thought he might make a hero call. I don't even know if I can represent the nut flush in case he has a smaller flush, since I might just call with this hand on the river, or go nuts on flop and turn.

[Poker monkey]

So there's like $4500 in the pot, Villain has about $4200 left and is probably on a flush draw, and you don't put him all-in on the turn? I don't get it.

If he has a hand that beats you here, that's a cooler, but this is a pretty good board for Aces and for less than a pot-size bet I think you have to shove the turn.

On the river - hard to see what you beat, but getting 5.5:1 I think you can call. Or fold. Doesn't make much difference I think.

[RoundTower]

well he can also have 2xxx, 55, 34.

[TheRempel]

You really think he'd play any 2 or 34 in this manner? Good fold though. I doubt very much he'd check the turn with 34. His most likely hand is overpair+flush draw unless you have a weird image, in which case he may very well check-call the flop with KK or whatever.

[pete fabrizio]

[ QUOTE ]
Results:
I folded. As everyone points out it is very difficult for me to be ahead here, even with the good price.

I was considering raising instead. I think if he folds the nut flush this is clearly profitable. But for that to happen he has to put me on exactly KKxx and I thought he might make a hero call. I don't even know if I can represent the nut flush in case he has a smaller flush, since I might just call with this hand on the river, or go nuts on flop and turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think it's really unlikely that he has the nut flush considering he limped and called 2 cold preflop and didn't raise you on the flop and didn't just pot the river with only a psb left. his weak-sauce line seems much more like some kind of mid-rundown hand w/ flush draw that got there.

[RoundTower]

having talked and thought about it a bit more I think I should just bet more on the flop, 2k or so. At the time I figured I would be a good favourite if the shorty called, a dog or close in the side pot, so I bet just enough to set the short guy in. But really I need to just price out draws/earn more from draws.

As played maybe I should have shoved the river, I'm glad I didn't though because I played a bit more with the guy and he is considerably worse than I thought, plus I saw him play a hand in a similar way and show up with the flopped full house.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
having talked and thought about it a bit more I think I should just bet more on the flop, 2k or so. At the time I figured I would be a good favourite if the shorty called, a dog or close in the side pot, so I bet just enough to set the short guy in. But really I need to just price out draws/earn more from draws.

As played maybe I should have shoved the river, I'm glad I didn't though because I played a bit more with the guy and he is considerably worse than I thought, plus I saw him play a hand in a similar way and show up with the flopped full house.

[/ QUOTE ]
If a player is flopping full houses he isn't bad at all. He is awesome.

[fringsrache]

i really dont understand why u bet so small on the flop. what was ur reasoning there?

[TheRempel]

He said it several times. He thought he was +EV vs the range the tiltly player would call with and he didn't want to bloat the pot against the other deepstack.