deep river spot with "obvious" aces $10-$20

[I dunno]

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I don't like the turn check.

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How much are you betting there?

[gordo16]

I think that the turn check in this spot is correct. Remember, this is deep stacked. Given the pre-flop action, is painfully obvious that Hero has AAxx. Unless Hero bets out close to the pot size here (a reasonable bet with a AA2x or AA45 for the turned straight), which few players have the balls to do, a good player, which I guess we can just for the sake of argument assume that the deep villain is given his stack size, will check-raise a continue-bet on the turn with anything... be it a draw, flopped trips, flopped boat, complete air, etc.. In fact, I think that the check behind on the turn is the smarter play because if the river is not a heart, Hero can at least re-examine the hand when faced with a bet from the villain and take whatever read he has gathered from there. A check-raise on the turn, however, obviously gets the Hero out of the hand. Again, insta-potting with AAxx with deep stacks at the table is not a great play IMO; it leaves your hand essentially face up and almost always puts you to a tough decision somewhere in the hand.

[gergery]

Seems like its one of two things 1) blocking bet with mid-strength hand trying to get value from AA but also worried about nutflush. Or 2) a bet-call line with a stronger hand trying to get value but wanting to induce a bluff too. I can’t see you being ahead here very often, but maybe you played it soft so maybe he's got KK/QQ and wants a cheap showdown. Weird.

You think he’ll fold a small flush here?

What was your plan if deep guy c-r the flop?

-g

[I dunno]

How can you assume that Hero has aces, even without history? His raise could be an isolation raise with a lot of premiums to get heads up with the tilty LAG.

Besides, most people aren't going to try to get aces to lay down in this spot. It'll be pretty hard for a decent player to show up with a hand that beats aces on the turn very often.

[gordo16]

[ QUOTE ]
How can you assume that Hero has aces, even without history? His raise could be an isolation raise with a lot of premiums to get heads up with the tilty LAG.

Besides, most people aren't going to try to get aces to lay down in this spot. It'll be pretty hard for a decent player to show up with a hand that beats aces on the turn very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

The raise-reraise preflop with a somewhat short-stacked tilty player in the hand with you, is, in my eyes, 90% of the time going to be aces. A good player is obviously not going to expect a fold from tilty-villain, or realistically, even deep villain, given the preflop betting. That being said, I just think that it's flat out wrong that a good player is not often going to show up with a hand that beats aces on this turn. The flop of 225 is a perfect flop for deep-villain to slowplay a flopped boat or tips on given exactly your kind of reasoning. Moreover, its a great hand to draw to a straight with because again, people with your kind of mindset will continue to bet and pay the straight off. It's also a good call with a straight draw because you can also bluff a heart. Villain can also safely call with a flush draw here because they can represent a flat-call with trips or a flopped boat if need be.

I also don't agree with the statement that most people aren't going to try to get aces to lay down in this spot. In my eyes, this is a perfect spot to get aces to lay down.

Although, I do agree with the reasoning that if you are going to be potting the flop, you just can't check the turn. That play truly does leave your hand face up and if I was the villain I would pot with pretty much any river aside from a 2 or an A.

[RoundTower]

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Again, insta-potting with AAxx with deep stacks at the table is not a great play IMO; it leaves your hand essentially face up and almost always puts you to a tough decision somewhere in the hand.

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I expected there was a good chance the tilty guy would go all in (I left enough that he could reopen the betting) and I could isolate him in a huge heads up pot.

Also it is possible I don't have aces here, but my hand definitely looks like a big pair that wanted to get all in with tilty guy.

[pete fabrizio]

you're getting a decent price to bluff-raise him all-in (~4k to win over ~5k). the problem is that he might look you up with a small flush or even a bare deuce. so it's a tricky spot b/c he's really unlikely to have a strong hand, but he should also be maximally suspicious of you. so i guess it depends on what you think he's capable of and what you think he thinks you're capable of. there are a lot of people who i'm pretty sure will never call a 1.5 buy-in raise on the river with a pure bluff-catcher, but there are a lot of people i would expect to fist-pump call me with just the straight or a 2ball. i could try to interpret "OK, semi-reg, not great," but you could probably do that better yourself. i will say that, empirically, i find that my river-raise bluffs have been working a huge % of the time the last couple months, so i'm tempted to think that at least at 1-2 and 2-4 people are largely sticking to the plan when they blocker-bet.

[CrushinFelt]

Let me rephrase... I don't like the turn check... but it's ok to do sometimes. It's definitely not my standard play, even with our hand basically face up. Many over-pair + FD hands are going to call your flop bet but may bow out to a good sized turn bet.

But having the standard play be letting any flush draw call you and not pay to see the river is not good.

[CrushinFelt]

Also, you can basically put a a guy who c/r the turn on either a huge hand or air. No draw is really going to improve much on the turn, so they'd be more likely to pop it up on the flop.

[alavet]

oh this is so hard [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

i would use all my timebank and probably get it sit out

i never tried this, but
what about get your network connection off and make it disconnect protection? lol