deep river spot with "obvious" aces $10-$20

[RoundTower]

OK I don't post many hand histories but this was an interesting spot. The guy on my left is badly on tilt, he has been popping it a lot preflop and recently got it all in three ways on the flop with four undercards and an 8 high flush draw, this is where I got my stack. Other guy is an OK semi-reg, not great, I forget how he got his stack. My image is probably aggro but not stupidly so.

what do you make of his river bet?

GAME #653777777: Omaha PL $10.00/$20.00 2007-09-12 11:11:11
Table Fort Lauderdale
Seat 1: deep villain ($5,959.00 in chips)
Seat 5: RoundTower ($7,619.15 in chips) DEALER
Seat 6: tilty villain ($1,856.00 in chips)
Seat 8: BB ($2,036.00 in chips)
Seat 10: UTG ($2,000.00 in chips)
tilty villain: Post SB $10.00
BB: Post BB $20.00
UTG: Post BB $20.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RoundTower 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG: Check
deep villain: Call $20.00
RoundTower: Raise to $110.00
tilty villain: Raise to $200.00
BB: Fold
UTG: Fold
deep villain: Call $180.00
RoundTower: Raise to $840.00
tilty villain: Call $640.00
deep villain: Call $640.00
*** FLOP *** 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
tilty villain: Check
deep villain: Check
RoundTower: Bet $1,017.00
tilty villain: Fold
deep villain: Call $1,017.00
*** TURN *** 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
deep villain: Check
RoundTower: Check
*** RIVER *** K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
deep villain: Bet $1,040.00
RoundTower:

[Petteri]

If deep villain can lay down hands you could re-raise all-in. River bet smells like blocking bet with trips, straight or flush. But it is risky move and requires good reads.

Folding is more solid line, there very small number of hands you can beat if you call. Anyhow I hate to fold that big pot to that smallish bet. But since your hand is pretty transparent, folding is an option.

[darkcore]

my first thought is that since your aces are obvious, villian is okish and his bet is giving you more than 4:1 "must-call"-odds... this looks like a pure valuebet to me. he knows you can't really call 1/2 pot or more and he'd bet more if he wanted to bluff you off the pot.

maybe it is the nutflush trying to get value from you with an option to get away from the hand if hero wakes up with kings full, but somehow i doubt it.

but well, i know nothing about these stakes anyway...

[TheRempel]

I can't really see how he doesn't have you beat unless he's a drooler. It's really hard for him to have a hand he's going to want to call a raise with though, so I might raise to like $2600 'for value'.

[jbird]

The problem is, with (1) tilty villain inbetween you guys in the preflop action (dead money), (2) your obvious aces and (3) your 1/3 pot flop bet, his range is wide open and he's calling you with a lot of hands that both the turn and the river make.

I think you are beat, so you can either bluffraise and rep KKxx if you are pretty sure this villain would fold his semi-weak made hands, or just fold yourself.

[CrushinFelt]

I don't like the turn check.

[Ribbo]

Watch out, if you fold the river people will start claiming you are "super exploitable".

[gordo16]

I think you have to insta-fold to this river bet. In this spot, I think that you are only going to get shown a hand like 456x that was just trying to hit a gutshot and really looking to bluff any scare cards less than 10% of the time. The bet is one looking for value. I wouldn't be surprised to be shown anything in the range of 55xx to a mid-range flush. It hurts to lay this down in a big pot, but I think that in this spot it's a must. To avoid getting into these sorts of situations, I would recommend not flipping your AAxx hands face up preflop when there are still deep stacks at the table. It is for this reason that you would seem "exploitable" at the table, not the fact that you make this river laydown.

[sc000t]

I don't like the turn check either. I fold the river.

[silkyjonson]

Bet something on the turn and your river decision is super easy.