if u ever wanted to see a good example of range merging...

[Woolygimp]

Definitely a spew.

At worst you have as little as 5-10% equity, and at best you are flipping a coin.

A pair with a bigger diamond, which won't be that uncommon, has you absolutely crushed. You are drawing to 2 outs against his one or two redraws, if you hit.

If called, the best case scenario would be something like AdTx and even then he's a slight favorite.

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distribute all hands equally he is ~75% more likely to have those hands without a diamond.

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AA with a diamond is just as common as AA without, and the same goes for any pocket pair 99+, except for QQ.

[schwza]

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AA with a diamond is just as common as AA without, and the same goes for any pocket pair 99+, except for QQ.

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this is true. 6 AA's, 3 of them of have the Ad.


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At worst you have as little as 5-10% equity, and at best you are flipping a coin.

A pair with a bigger diamond, which won't be that uncommon, has you absolutely crushed. You are drawing to 2 outs against his one or two redraws, if you hit.

If called, the best case scenario would be something like AdTx and even then he's a slight favorite.

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jigga-what? are you saying he's going to fold a hand like AdKx? he's getting 2:1 with the nut flush draw and 2 overs, and some chance to catch a hand like AxKd and be well ahead. now if you actually thought that villain would fold the Ad for some reason, then it'd be a super obvious push. there just wouldn't be very hands that villain would be calling with.

in reality, i think villain calls with the Ad close to every time. but i also think that villain is going to fold a decent % of the time. this is a math thing that i am terrible at doing on the fly: if we assume that hero is 30% when called, what fold % do we need villain to have?

i haven't done the math or anything but my intuition tells me that we'll be way behind sometimes, but it will be more than made up for by the times that we steal the 405 out there. if we get called and we're 33%, we only lose approximately 215, which is really not that much. it's significantly better to get ai as a 50-50 than it is to fold. (my rough math for the 160 number is that we'd be putting in 885 into 225 as a 33% favorite. we can put in 225 as 0 EV, so we're essentially putting in 645 into a pot of 0 as a 33% favorite. that costs us 215).

someone should check my arithmetic and reasoning, but that looks like we need to win with no call approximately 35% of the time (since 215 is a little over half of 405) if we assume 33% equity when called.

as for calling, i really don't like that play. the strength of our hand is that we're not in terrible shape against very many hands. if we let a turn come off, then we have no idea where we stand. if it's a brick, then we just lost a lot of equity vs AxAx. if it's a diamond, then now we're drawing dead vs a bigger diamond and we'll get no action from AxAx. just stick it in now so you don't leave yourself in a position where you'll often make a very wrong decision.

i wouldn't really call this range-merging, but frankly i think that's kind of a stupid concept anyway. i don't know what exactly to call this, i guess it's just a semi-bluff but what's interesting is that sometimes our hand is the draw (vs AxAx) and sometimes it's the made hand (vs AdKx).

[reup]

i don't think many 31/28 losing players are looking to make thin folds with the nut flush draw in three bet pots when they are firing. he folds that hand close to never imo. the question is will he be firing with a very wide range here and i think the answer is yes, so i don't mind a shove cause i think you're ahead of his range. idk what else is there to it?

[reup]

granted it was only over 200~ hands

[b33nz]

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AA with a diamond is just as common as AA without, and the same goes for any pocket pair 99+, except for QQ.

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this is true. 6 AA's, 3 of them of have the Ad.

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my bad, i got PPs confused with unpaired cards.


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as for calling, i really don't like that play. the strength of our hand is that we're not in terrible shape against very many hands. if we let a turn come off, then we have no idea where we stand. if it's a brick, then we just lost a lot of equity vs AxAx. if it's a diamond, then now we're drawing dead vs a bigger diamond and we'll get no action from AxAx. just stick it in now so you don't leave yourself in a position where you'll often make a very wrong decision.

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i agree with this. as a matter of fact i prefer folding over calling because its gonna be so tough to play any non-9 turn.

i think ive find out how to mathematically solve the EV of this hand on a basic level.

im gonna make some assumptions:
he folds to a shove 60%.
he calls 40% and our equity is 30% (about 7 outs).

so:
405 * .6 = +$243 when he folds to our shove.
.4( (1,110 * .3) - (885 * .7) ) = -$114.6 when called.

243 - 114.6 = +$128.4 is the EV of this hand on average.

can someone double check this math?

another added benefit for shoving that is great is meta-game. when regulars see you doing this then they are going to start calling you down lighter in huge pots even tho what your doing is +EV in the first place.

of course this is debatable of how often he folds/calls and what my equity is based on his calling range, but thats just too much guesswork and probably not even possible to accurately estimate.

[Irish Mafia]

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and why? im only getting called by better hands most of the time so i know im gonna be behind whenever im called.

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Not necessarily. Could be called by Ad-x

[MINETZ]

its better against a winning player worse against a losing player

[b33nz]

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and why? im only getting called by better hands most of the time so i know im gonna be behind whenever im called.

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Not necessarily. Could be called by Ad-x

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