Smooth calling river with nut straight 3-way

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
What leads you to believe that Levo has only a bluff or the goods here?

[/ QUOTE ]

That he leads into a three-way pot for 3/4 pot when there are four to the straight showing, LDO. This is a value-bet with less than the nuts approximately 0.001% of the time. You'll get a donk to overcall with J9 occasionally though so calling's better.

On a more relevant point though, I'd definitely pot the turn. You repped weakness with your small bet on the flop, so a straight that got there is believable and your weak bet is also going to make your opponents much less likely to C/R the turn if they hit the nuts. You've also got one blocker on the straight with your jack. Sets can be discounted as well since those would likely bet or raise the flop.

That leaves you in a situation where your opponents should never really be calling and if they do, you have 20 outs to improve and probably an easy bluff on a blank river. Finally, when they do call, they'll usually have a combo draw or 2 pair+FD, so when a diamond hits on the river, you'll get even more value. Definitely bet the turn, checking costs you a ton.

[alavet]

first off, not many people woulb blff at such board w/o the nuts kinda OOP. i _may_ suppose lev is bluffing 5% here and semibluffing 20% of time
and if so, he may call your miniraise (as you probably gotta raise) say, 15% of time. your miniraise would be 25, so EV of this move would be about $4 bucks as max.

lets say, villian would call 30% of time w/o nuts; then you get another $4 as max (25*0.3/2 if chops)

so
my brain would be sick counting such things and i probably go time out and fold

[Kala1928]

shove to induce a misclick-fold