Bluff bet this river?

[chesspain]

Foxwoods 5-10 kill game. MP is a non-tricky, passive, elderly Asian man. He's too loose preflop and on the flop, but will rarely call down with a hopeless hand. Button is a quiet guy in his late twenties, trying to play well. They both should realize that I'm a TAG. I won a decent pot last hand, so I'm posting a $10 kill blind in LMP, with the hand playing as 10-20.

Preflop: chesspain is LMP with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Two early players call, a couple of folds, passive, old Asian dude calls, I check my blind, folded to Button who raises, blinds fold, everyone calls. (10 SB)

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Checked to Button who bets, both early players fold, old man calls, I call. (13 SB)

Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Everyone checks. (6.5 BB)

River: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Old man checks...

Since I assume that the old man would have bet this river if he had a king (although he could have a weak ace), and it now looks as if the Button doesn't have an ace, can I steal this pot at least 15% of the time with a bet here?

[blackasthma]

You have nut no-pair, so I think issue is whether a bet makes button fold his underpair. Given how poorly he played turn, imo, I think I would take a stab at this. Button may fold simply because of player yet to act behind him...

[StrictlyStrategy]

You basically have to ask yourself if button will fold 88

He raised PF, nobody bet the flop, and the turn was checked through, most people don't give up in spots like this.

[Diana Ross Fan]

[ QUOTE ]
You basically have to ask yourself if button will fold 88

He raised PF, nobody bet the flop, and the turn was checked through, most people don't give up in spots like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd have to say that button will fold. The others might make a call with a 4 or something.

And just what day was this hand played [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[James.]

hell no. HU it's something to consider. with more thinking opponents you could possibly utilize the protected pot aspect of this and fire.

you need both players to fold 15% of the time. even if the button folds 15% of his range and the old man folds 15% of his range, combined they're only folding around 2% of the time. this is nowhere near enough.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
you need both players to fold 15% of the time. even if the button folds 15% of his range and the old man folds 15% of his range, combined they're only folding around 2% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, I don't really think it's equivalent to calculating the odds of one rolling two seven-sided dice and coming up with snake-eyes.

[Mike]

It's possible you could bluff this hand. It depends on how much credibility the players are giving you at this moment.

You think they should realize you are TAG. The winning question is do they see you as a player who would bluff this river?

From your description the third player trying to play well should fold, that would satisfy his need. OAD needs to feel thrifty at the moment. Button has to believe you were letting him take the lead only to scoop at the river.

Raising the turn would solidify your case, and also put your chips at risk from button because in this hand button has the lead. Feeling lucky?

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you need both players to fold 15% of the time. even if the button folds 15% of his range and the old man folds 15% of his range, combined they're only folding around 2% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, I don't really think it's equivalent to calculating the odds of one rolling two seven-sided dice and coming up with snake-eyes.

[/ QUOTE ]

my point is if the old guy would fold 15% of the time and the button would fold 15% of the time and we view them as independent events(which in this case we likely can) it's only going to be around 2% of the time that they actually both fold in one occurrence.

basically we would need to get really generous and say that they both fold independently 39% of the time to achieve a combined frequency of 15% which is highly unlikely and thus makes betting the river a "spewtastic" play.

[Fnord]

Anyone feeling a pre-flop raise?

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone feeling a pre-flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

for me it's probably closer to a fold than a raise.