Common Dilemma: Bet Or Ck Behind Turn?

[gaming_mouse]

30 game online. Villain is solid LAGTAG.

I open JTo OTB, he calls in BB.

2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (I have no club)

He checks, I bet, he calls.

K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

He checks and I?

[gaming_mouse]

I would appreciate any reasoning for either choice. If you like a bet, which hands are in his range that he's folding? Obviously not all the fd and oesd. How sure are we that we can rule out pairs simply because our opponent didn't c/r the flop?

If you like a check, why do you think we don't have enough fold equity for a bet? What do you think his range is?

Thanks.

[skilled]

bet for metagame, and the fact that your showdown value is nil

[surfdoc]

I like this thread alrerady because I hate that spot so much.

[Carmine]

I think the range that he peels with hands like QJ hoping for a turn check-through is smaller than all the Ax/pair/draw/semi-bluff hands that are commited to either a SD or seeing the river card.

I think against an aggressive player we are better off heading to the river with our 7-ish outs. The 3BB pot is relatively small but if it goes check/bet/raise I think we put ourselves in a position to make the most mistakes getting 6:1

[geormiet]

Standard lagtag play would generally c-r any pair or draw on the flop and peel w/ A high or very weak draws.

That turn makes A high tough to call down, so I definitely bet again, and also bet a lot of rivers.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Standard lagtag play would generally c-r any pair or draw on the flop and peel w/ A high or very weak draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

George,

This is often true, but is also opponent dependent. I know that I, for one, will often mix up my flop c/r with a turn c/r especially against opponents who can be counted on to bet that turn with lots of hands (including ones like mine in this hand). I don't know how many other players do the same, but I think this mixing is pretty crucial to solid play, no? And if you are against this kind of villain, then doesn't a check behind here look alot better?

[geormiet]

Even though he mixes up his play, at least a good portion of the time he should still have what he is expected to have.

editted because I don't read op's post closely enough

[Carmine]

[ QUOTE ]
Standard lagtag play would generally c-r any pair or draw on the flop and peel w/ A high or very weak draws.

That turn makes A high tough to call down, so I definitely bet again, and also bet a lot of rivers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see why the turn makes it hard for Ax to call down. OP's range here is huge. If BB is any good he should know the Hero will use that card to his advantage just as much as if he actually hit it. Granted it is a tougher CD but I doubt he lets it go. Maybe the worse of his Ax holdings

If you do bet and get called I'm curious as to what cards Hero should be betting on the river. The way I see it almsot every card that misses us is likely to help villian except for maybe a 3 or 4 that's not a club. If we are looking at and Ace river did BB CD with a pair or Ax.

Also are you folding to a turn C/R

[geormiet]

How is the K not a bad card for A high? Along with a Q it hits the raisers range the most.

yes i would fold to a raise, JT is one of the worst hands I can have here so I won't be bet folding very often.

On another tangent: If I am villian and I c-r the turn then it means I either have Kx or a semibluff, and probably have the semibluff pretty often. I wonder if it woudl be correct to 3 bet JT here vs. my c-r.

EDIT: I didn't notice the gutshot. I would defintely call the turn raise against a lot of opponents.