K hi vs big river bet

[wiggs73]

b33nz,

This looks like a spew to me, fwiw. I think this is 5x often.

[b33nz]

[ QUOTE ]
I think villain hopes you call with AK/AQ here. Its a horrible spot to bluff for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

so are u saying villain has three fives or a full house 66%+ of the time here? thats hard to believe since there are only four full house possibities (44/54/TT/A5; he never has AA). most are pretty unlikely mathematically and the way he played his hand.

his 5x hands are limited to 53/56/57/58. and thats assuming he calls with those PF oop. a fair assumption would be that he calls 75% of those hands.

maybe its just me, but i did the fairest math in my head (that i wont bother wasting ur time with) and tried to give him a realistic range and i still got him bluffing at ~40%. at the very worst he is bluffing 30% of hands that i beat.

then again this could be one of those hands that im way off on. fwiw, i still dont believe its a terrible call after doing some math and playing with the hand ranges a bit. still tho, i could always be wrong.

[anuj]

What is your Player ID?

[jfish]

i think bluffing freq % is just very low on the river given the size of the bet and the texture of the board. you can try giving him a range and calculate odds, but fact is i think hes bluffing here WAY less than 40% and likely under 5% when he bets pot.

[Jurrr]

I'd rather like 3betting turn than calling river.

[overkill]

aejones theorem FTW...
how the [censored] it turn out to be a call?

[DJ Sensei]

yo heres the easy part:

1) you called the turn, so he thinks you have an ace. flush draws wont come to mind until after the fact, the ace is all he sees, given your line so far and that conspicuous turn card.
2) he pots river.

so, he smells the blood in the water and goes in for the kill. thats straight valuetown, son.

[b33nz]

the pot bet is actually what did me in. if he were to bet ~2/3s of the pot this would have been a much simpler fold since he bluffs less and value bets more hands with a 2/3 bet than a full pot bet. from my experience a pot bet on the river is an air or nuts type of situation alot of times.

juu: the reason i called instead of 3bet is because i estimated that my hand had showdown value unimproved.

[Jurrr]

[ QUOTE ]
Juu: the reason i called instead of 3bet is because i estimated that my hand had showdown value unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]I understand that. And that could be the case, just not often enough.

By 3betting turn you still win the turn pot if your hand is best, win the turn pot (instead of losing another $222) if villain folds a marginal winning hand and win (sometimes a big pot if villain has a hand) if you river your flush. Depending on what probability to assign to each of these cases 3betting turn may be better than bet-calling turn and calling river.

[rosso87]

so what did he have?