K hi vs big river bet

[fitnessfreak]

looks pretty horrible to me. he doesnt need to just be bluffing 33% of the time for you to call profitably, he has to be bluffing with the worst hand 33% of the time. surely he will be "bluffing" with a low to medium pp, KQ or KJ or even a random hand w a T a reasonable amount of the time.

[b33nz]

the range of hands i put him on are:

25% he has a 5 or a full house.
20% he will play an Ax like this.
15% he has me beat with a pair of fours/tens/KQ type hands.
that leaves 40% left for straight bluffing.

realistically is he ever playing anything but a full house/three 5s like this? i dont even think he plays AJ this strong. im thinkin he either had a lower flush draw or just a plain bluff since he knows im weak most of the time.

food for thought.

[PoppaTMan]

Holding the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] kind of hurts your case here.

[Grandezza]

if he is capable of of shoving AK for 100bbs he is definitely also capable of cold calling it. He could play AK/AQ this strongly. also, I agree w/ jfish's reasoning for this almost never being a bluff.

I think you're looking at 4s full, aces full, a 5 or AK/AQ the vast majority of the time.

[ebalf]

since you called his turn-CR on a dangerous board he has to put you on a strong hand.
but nevertheless he bets big on river.
I say you're beat. fold.

[JooWish622]

[ QUOTE ]
villain and i have been tangling a bit in smaller pots. im lag PF and postflop. my only read is that he once went all in (open raise 100 bb) from the BB after a regular 3.5 bb raise from the BTN with AKo. its safe to say he never has AK here. he needs to be bluffing 33% to break even. love it, hate it?


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $97.00
BB: $817.40
UTG: $517.00
CO: $581.00
Hero (BTN): $1,103.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7 K (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14.00</font>, SB folds, BB calls $10.00

Flop: ($30) 5 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($30) A (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $22.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $96.00</font>, Hero calls $74.00

River: ($222) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $222.00</font>, Hero calls $222.00

[/ QUOTE ]

call yo cause you were clearly right.

[paulnic]

errrrrr..... no.
dont like this, this is just stupid lol.

Are u going to prove us all wrong and show he had 3\6 diamonds...? AEJONES eat your heart out!!

yes just noticed the wheel ok ok 36 diamonds then!

[Jamougha]

[ QUOTE ]

Are u going to prove us all wrong and show he had 23 diamonds

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty sure 32 is not a good result for OP.

[punter11235]

LOL OP, are you high ?
This wouldnt be an easy call with AQ.

[dirtytricks]

I think villain hopes you call with AK/AQ here. Its a horrible spot to bluff for him.