AQs, BB, very first hand, and SB limp-raises

[DirteAA]

Ok, there are 60 combinations of hands from 77+, AQ+ (excluding the Ah and Qh). If he folds 77-99, AQo and AQs he folds out 27 hands to a shove. I doubt he folds AK here. So 27 is 45%. So we could say he has 45% FE.

so 45% of the time villain folds and Hero wins 22.5 bbs.

55% of the time villain calls with the range of TT+, AK (again excluding the Ah and Qh). That leaves us with 33 combination of hands he will call with.

We are a 65/35 dog to his calling range. So when he calls 55% of the time we lose 100 bbs 65% of the time, and gain 104.5 bbs 35% of the time.

So, 45 times out of 100 we win 22.5 bbs.

We win 104.5 bbs 19 times out of 100.

And we lose 100 bbs 36 times out of 100.

(22.5 * 45)+(104.5 *19)= +2998
(100 * 36) = -3600
For a total difference of -602 bbs.

That is -6.02bb per hand.

Given that villain's range is as such. Is this right?

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.617% 33.67% 06.95% 36316824 7499124.00 { AhQh }
Hand 1: 59.383% 52.43% 06.95% 56560080 7499124.00 { 77+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Against an unknown I think it is difficult to determine whether he could hold QQ+ here. I think we don't see this situation very often so that is why I lean towards folding. If we knew villain had a slight tendency to make odd plays with less than QQ+ then I would argue for shoving.

I wouldn't want to start my session with such a high variance play when I have no idea what the villain is capable of.

This reminds me of a situation I read about playing AK tptk vs an unknown. I'm not sure who the poster was or where I read it, but he said it is probably best to fold to resistence b/c we are unsure whether the villain is capable of making the move w/ a hand we beat. He said it would be best to fold now and learn more about that villain so we can make a better decision next time we're in a pot with them.

Isn't it best to lean towards conservatism when we are up against an unknown?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bear in my mind that I LOVE Variance.

You ever take a finance class and see this question?

"Which would you prefer?

a) Pay $10000 and receive $15000 today

b) Pay $10000 and wait until tomorrow. At that time, you receive either $50000 (50% chance) or must pay an additional $10000 (50% chance)."

I'm one of the ones who picks B. Same expectation, but sometimes B gets me $50000!

To put it another way, if you play this game over and over again, and you get real lucky and win a few more than expected, you're up big. But if you get real unlucky and lose a few, it doesn't hurt as much as the winning helps.

My roll is high enough that I never, ever, ever, EVER sacrifice EV to reduce variance, and if I think EV = 0 (i.e. SB is shoving every single hand when it's folded to him), I'll often embrace the variance (unless it has indirect negative consequences, like if I know the stupid SB will leave immediately if he wins a flip).

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.617% 33.67% 06.95% 36316824 7499124.00 { AhQh }
Hand 1: 59.383% 52.43% 06.95% 56560080 7499124.00 { 77+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]

So after factoring in the money already in the pot and about 10% worth of fold equity (assume he folds maybe 99- an AQ+) shoving would appear to be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are about 20bbs in the pot already. Pretty sure shoving against that range is +EV even if he never folds.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, there are 60 combinations of hands from 77+, AQ+ (excluding the Ah and Qh). If he folds 77-99, AQo and AQs he folds out 27 hands to a shove. I doubt he folds AK here. So 27 is 45%. So we could say he has 45% FE.

so 45% of the time villain folds and Hero wins 22.5 bbs.

55% of the time villain calls with the range of TT+, AK (again excluding the Ah and Qh). That leaves us with 33 combination of hands he will call with.

We are a 65/35 dog to his calling range. So when he calls 55% of the time we lose 100 bbs 65% of the time, and gain 104.5 bbs 35% of the time.

So, 45 times out of 100 we win 22.5 bbs.

We win 104.5 bbs 19 times out of 100.

And we lose 100 bbs 36 times out of 100.

(22.5 * 45)+(104.5 *19)= +2998
(100 * 36) = -3600
For a total difference of -602 bbs.

That is -6.02bb per hand.

Given that villain's range is as such. Is this right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get your math.

1) I already have 4BBs committed. So at decision point I can only "risk" 96 BBs.

If I shove, my expection is 122.5 BBs when he folds, and 35% of 204BBs when he calls, and it "costs" me 96 BBs to shove. So:

EV = (122.5BBs)*.45 + (204BBs)*.35*.55 = 42.875+39.27 = about 82BBs

With your estimates it's actually -14BBs, because I invest 96 to get 82.

But I think he folds a HELLA lot more than 45% if you think our equity is only 35% when called.

[AAmucked]

I find people have AK a lot here and hate playing it for a raise OOP. It can also get value out of weak aces.

[DirteAA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, there are 60 combinations of hands from 77+, AQ+ (excluding the Ah and Qh). If he folds 77-99, AQo and AQs he folds out 27 hands to a shove. I doubt he folds AK here. So 27 is 45%. So we could say he has 45% FE.

so 45% of the time villain folds and Hero wins 22.5 bbs.

55% of the time villain calls with the range of TT+, AK (again excluding the Ah and Qh). That leaves us with 33 combination of hands he will call with.

We are a 65/35 dog to his calling range. So when he calls 55% of the time we lose 100 bbs 65% of the time, and gain 104.5 bbs 35% of the time.

So, 45 times out of 100 we win 22.5 bbs.

We win 104.5 bbs 19 times out of 100.

And we lose 100 bbs 36 times out of 100.

(22.5 * 45)+(104.5 *19)= +2998
(100 * 36) = -3600
For a total difference of -602 bbs.

That is -6.02bb per hand.

Given that villain's range is as such. Is this right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get your math.

1) I already have 4BBs committed. So at decision point I can only "risk" 96 BBs.

If I shove, my expection is 122.5 BBs when he folds, and 35% of 204BBs when he calls, and it "costs" me 96 BBs to shove. So:

EV = (122.5BBs)*.45 + (204BBs)*.35*.55 = 42.875+39.27 = about 82BBs

With your estimates it's actually -14BBs, because I invest 96 to get 82.

But I think he folds a HELLA lot more than 45% if you think our equity is only 35% when called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I hadn't done an equity calc before. The way you show it makes it easier to understand.

But the range I used was given by 42it, I was just trying to figure it out exactly. So it is a losing move according to those ranges, yes?

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, there are 60 combinations of hands from 77+, AQ+ (excluding the Ah and Qh). If he folds 77-99, AQo and AQs he folds out 27 hands to a shove. I doubt he folds AK here. So 27 is 45%. So we could say he has 45% FE.

so 45% of the time villain folds and Hero wins 22.5 bbs.

55% of the time villain calls with the range of TT+, AK (again excluding the Ah and Qh). That leaves us with 33 combination of hands he will call with.

We are a 65/35 dog to his calling range. So when he calls 55% of the time we lose 100 bbs 65% of the time, and gain 104.5 bbs 35% of the time.

So, 45 times out of 100 we win 22.5 bbs.

We win 104.5 bbs 19 times out of 100.

And we lose 100 bbs 36 times out of 100.

(22.5 * 45)+(104.5 *19)= +2998
(100 * 36) = -3600
For a total difference of -602 bbs.

That is -6.02bb per hand.

Given that villain's range is as such. Is this right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get your math.

1) I already have 4BBs committed. So at decision point I can only "risk" 96 BBs.

If I shove, my expection is 122.5 BBs when he folds, and 35% of 204BBs when he calls, and it "costs" me 96 BBs to shove. So:

EV = (122.5BBs)*.45 + (204BBs)*.35*.55 = 42.875+39.27 = about 82BBs

With your estimates it's actually -14BBs, because I invest 96 to get 82.

But I think he folds a HELLA lot more than 45% if you think our equity is only 35% when called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I hadn't done an equity calc before. The way you show it makes it easier to understand.

But the range I used was given by 42it, I was just trying to figure it out exactly. So it is a losing move according to those ranges, yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but your calculations don't account for the fact that he rarely has QQ+ here, given the action, and instead weights all his hands equally.

In fact, I would argue that he never has QQ or KK, or AK, because if he is "getting tricky" with a big hand, it's only with AA.

Given this new information, my FE is a lot bigger than 45%, I think.