Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn

[mts]

If you raise to 5k, now your putting yourself in a position where you need to win the pot. so your pushing on the river no matter what?

The best i could put him on is KJ, AQ, KQ, QT, QJ, TJ, T9, AJ, any PP, and a total miss a very small % of the time. Basically, you can't confidently put him on a hand the way you played it so i'm jumping ship or hoping my card comes 1/3 of the time.

Very open to criticism.

[bugstud]

most interesting turn card in the deck. So the CO here can have KJ/J8? sometimes, two pair hands, pair+straight hands, or just be bluffing.

If he's not bluffing, then you have the problem of what cards get your paid. Some clubs, like the royal-making Kc, may utterly kill your action, as might any 8 or K. If the CO has a made straight or pair+straight hands, though, he may pay off a substantial amount on the river if you hit. Might even double you up if he bets enough. Sometimes the board pair isn't clean, either. So you have 2-7 of clubs, 6 of them, that should have good implied odds and 6 cards the may or may not give you action that complete your straight, the Kc plus the 2 board pairing clubs. MJ is still yet to act so we also have the problem of not completing the action, or having any clue on his hand range. If we call making the pot 5k and MJ moves in on us there it will be 6500 or so in the pot with another 8k to us to call making it a fold.

On the other hand if you raise the pot will be 5k plus whatever you make it, so allin is a bit of an overbet and smaller than that kinda leaves us in a weird spot as far as stack in the center-type of committedness. What would the 2 players put us on if we shove here? Possibly some range that has some monsters (tt/99 mostly?), some AQ/KQ/QJ type hands and probably a decent amount of what we have, a combo draw.

I am thinking my answer right now, even said that, is to shove. I'm not sure if they will call with 2 pair or not, but I'm just not seeing enough value in hitting our hand on the river to justify flatcalling and other than possibly the confusing minraise here any other raise other than allin doesn't seem right.

[bruce]

The main reason we checked the flop was to see a fourth card.
We now have a big draw, but we still are an underdog, unless
co is betting something like 67c, which I doubt. I still don't
think we can discount MJ from the hand. There are three different scenarios I can construct:

1. Fold
We have invested a total of T600 into this pot. We have an
active player behind us yet to act. If we call and he raises then we're in bad shape unless we make our hand.
I believe this to be too tight a way to play the hand, but
there are some merit's to this.

2. Call
We have a big draw. We probably have at least 12 outs assuming no one flopped a set or no one else has a flush draw. An Ace on a good day might be an out. Why jeopordize
our entire stack by raising when we can see the river hopefully for the co's turn bet.

3. Raise
I think a turn push looks suspicious like we have picked up
a big draw. If co now has a straight we have no fold equity. Raising will only work if co or MJ have one pair typed hands. I don't think any good player will fold a set or two pair in this scenario. Raising may allow us to pick up the pot immeadiately, but the flipside is we may also go
broke. Raising or calling has a lot to do with your underlying styles of play and level of risk. If you wind up going all in and co flips over KJ and you miss your hand you look like an idiot. If you raise and both players fold you look like a genius.

All things considering I favor a call although it's close.

Bruce

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I am thinking my answer right now, even said that, is to shove. I'm not sure if they will call with 2 pair or not, but I'm just not seeing enough value in hitting our hand on the river to justify flatcalling and other than possibly the confusing minraise here any other raise other than allin doesn't seem right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you going to pick up the pot enough by pushing to make up for being a 2-1 underdog when called? You are a 5-1 underdog against a straight and about 2-1 versus a pair, 2 pair, or a set.

[MrMoo]

I fold. I've only put 3BB's in. I'll find a better spot. Too many chances I'll lose a significant amount of chips or my entire stack.

I wouldn't call because the pot it's currently laying me only 2.5-1. With implied odds, I think this call is barely justifiable. I wouldn't expect MJ to cold call behind us. He's either going to raise us out or fold and not add to our implied odds. With MJ out of this hand, I would call. With him in, I find a better spot.

I don't like a raise because I think it's hard to represent many strong hands other than what I actually have. Maybe AQ or TT. I'm putting CO on any pair here. But likely an overpair or trips. Certainly possible that he's taking a stab with an underpair but I think it's slightly less probable then an overpair. With the CO having AA,KK, or trips I'd expect him to put me to a decision that I'm not willing to call with. Again, I have to still deal with MJ and a lot of his hand range I can see him raising me out as well.

Ultimately it's still day 1. If I was online and I could buy into another tournament right away, I may consider a different approach. As it stands here, I find a different spot.

[Rduke55]

With this draw I don't think there's anyway I'm folding this. I said raise because 1) It could win it right now because we're representing a big hand by our action so far, and 2) A lot of cards could come that will give us our hand yet kill our action on the river. This way we can some money into the pot now. And 3) if a card that may or may not give us the win (such as an A) comes we may be able to check behind on the river.
And a less probable scenario - in the event MJ has a better A we can get him out and buy ourselves 2 more outs maybe.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]

Are you going to pick up the pot enough by pushing to make up for being a 2-1 underdog when called? You are a 5-1 underdog against a straight and about 2-1 versus a pair, 2 pair, or a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

you've got these numbers messed up. I believe my post covered most of it, but I don't think his range has a high %age of calling hands in it. IF you think his range is really weighted towards strong hands then your implied odds are much higher because many of them are paying off money on the river, but if you think the range is less strong then you don't get to make much on the river. Just my take on it.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold. I've only put 3BB's in. I'll find a better spot. Too many chances I'll lose a significant amount of chips or my entire stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is too tight. If MJ makes big raise, you probably have to fold. There is some possibilty you can call a small raise, depending on pot odds. However, I think you have some implied odds. If you make a flush, someone else could have a lower flush. Plus a straight, set, or 2-pair is probably going to call some bet, even with a 3-flush on the board.

[Rduke55]

Thanks Lloyd and Sossman. I'm never going to get any work done today.
P.S. Fell free to delete this if you want.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Are you going to pick up the pot enough by pushing to make up for being a 2-1 underdog when called? You are a 5-1 underdog against a straight and about 2-1 versus a pair, 2 pair, or a set.



[/ QUOTE ]


you've got these numbers messed up. I believe my post covered most of it, but I don't think his range has a high %age of calling hands in it. IF you think his range is really weighted towards strong hands then your implied odds are much higher because many of them are paying off money on the river, but if you think the range is less strong then you don't get to make much on the river. Just my take on it.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think CO is bluffing betting into 2 players on a QT93 2-flush board.

You may win the pot a lot with a raise or push, but if you are called or reraised, you are almost certainly atleast a 5-3 underdog. A straight flush draw is way behind a pair on the turn. You could get called by a pair plus flush draw, but if you get action you are probably atleast a 2-1 dog. This is too dangerous a board to semibluff at. It is too likely someone has something.