Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn

[Lloyd]

This is part 3 of our first Play a Hand With the Masters. If you haven't already read, thought about, and posted in the pre-flop thread and flop thread you should do so first.

Here is the hand up until our next decision point:

Setup

$10,000 Buy-In Event
Day 1
Blinds 75/150 and will go up to 100/200 on the next hand
Hero has been at the table for about an hour with no unusual play. All players are unknown except for Miami John to his direct left. The CO in this hand has been playing pretty tight.

Relevant Stacks

CO 25,000
Hero 11,500
MJ 13,000
BB 9,800

Pre-Flop
Everyone folds to the CO who limps for T150. Hero is on the button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and raises to T600. MJ calls in the SB for T600, the BB folds, and the CO calls for T600.

Flop
Pot: T1950

T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

MJ checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn
Pot: T1950

Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

MJ checks, CO bets T1500. Action is on the hero.

Range of hands for CO? Do you fold, call, or raise (and if so, how much)? Thought process is obviously critical here. If you call or raise do you have a plan on the river (presuming you do not raise all-in)?

[Exitonly]

Best card in the deck (or worst) I'd raise to 5000.

a) it looks like you had a set, or maybe KJs, so you have FE.
b) you now got lots of outs for the river, assuming he actually calls you.

If he or MJ pushes, i'd call getting 2.5:1.


edit: if you are 35% to win if your bet is called, then your raise has to take it down only 25% of the time to be profitable.

Not sure if that'll happen, but i think your FE is bigger now than it was on the flop.

[grandgnu]

If you're a risk-taker and you don't mind going home early, you can re-raise here or push, although you'll essentially be pot-committing yourself to the hand with lots of outs, but your entire tournament at risk.

I would likely "think" for awhile and smooth-call. I still have position, and can win if I hit on the river, or get away if I don't hit. A smooth-call might scare the CO into checking, depending on the river card, so you might get a free showdown.

I think most pro's would re-raise in this spot though, since they're interested in accumulating chips early instead of just struggling through as an average stack.

[Rduke55]

I like the raise to 5K.
Since it's 1/2 of our remaining stack or so it shows we are committed to this pot (with stacks as deep as these maybe "committed" is the wrong word - how about "dedicated?"). However anyone calling has to assume that we'll be putting the rest of our chips in on the river. And they should probably assume we're calling if they raise.
Our raise may look like we have a set or other big hand and are concerrned about the two clubs on board. There's also a slim chance that if the CO just calls us that he'll bluff at a 3rd club assuming we're afraid of it.

[betgo]

I flat call. You have an open ended and a nut flush draw, but this is not that strong on the turn. The board is dangerous. You could easily be up aginst a straight, 2 pair, or a set. You are almost a 2-1 underdog against a pair. When you call, you hope the SB doesn't checkraise.

[grandgnu]

I like the re-raise to 5K as well though. It gives you two shots to win all those chips:

1. Your opponent goes away
2. You hit your draw on the river, and you have plenty of outs

I originally advocated betting the flop, because it would give us a better idea where we stood against our opponents, and allow us to risk 1K or so and get away without risking anymore chips. Now we might be putting in more than that and have allowed ourselves to be outdrawn, and we wind up putting our entire tournament at risk on a draw.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]

edit: if you are 35% to win if your bet is called, then your raise has to take it down only 25% of the time to be profitable.


[/ QUOTE ]

More profitable than folding, that is. Just because a play is +EV doesn't make it the best play.

[stokken]

In this case with just 1 card to come I would opt for the smooth call. If SB calls great more into the pot, but if he raises there is the possibility of more chips for us, If he folds so be it, at least he was given a chanse to contribute .And in the case he folds or just calls, should the club or K fail to fall one still has chips to work with.
Range co:AK-T, KQ, QJ,QT,JT, If AA-55 horribly played

I think the flush draw is decently hidden, and that the hand has implied odds if one more should fall.

Had the flush draw been materialized on the flopp I`d be more willing to raise then, but not so with 1 card to come, but might call a reraise from sb dependent on size and co`s action
This is a wonderfull turn for the hand, but I wouldnt jump out of my chair.

[jtomon]

This exercise is harder than I thought when Hero's action isn't what I said I would do!!

I'm pushing here. Tons of outs if I'm behind, and the check of the flop looks like a steal gone wrong on my end.

[Salva135]

I wish we had bet the flop, maybe 1000 to see where we stood. It has good texture for us and with only 2 opponents we have a good chance to use position to take this down right there (and if not, there are redraws out there). We're still a bit weary of the CO's open limp, and by checking behind we have no idea if anyone is sitting on something big.

Since we checked, I like the smooth call. We can get away from this hand if we miss, and probably win a nice pot from CO if we hit on the river. By raising here to 5,000, if the CO calls and a blank hits on the river, what would our play be? We showed no strength on the flop so that makes this play less believable. Do we really want to push the rest in on an ace-high bluff? The CO would be getting good odds so that may not even be enough to push him off if he has something like QJ.