50NL: NIT minraise, take the odds?

[blackize]

This nit is 17/4/2 over 780 hands, he only cbets 33% of the time. A majority of these hands were datamined, but I have played with him a good amount, haven't seen him do anything out of line enough that I have a note on him.

I'm thinking I can confidently put him on a very narrow range so when I hit I'll know where I stand. Do I take the 3.5:1 and call or just muck it?

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $79.40
UTG+1: $48.75
CO: $47.55
Button: $32.55
SB: $96.94
Hero: $49.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $1</font>, 4 folds, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $0.5 returned to UTG.

Results:
Final pot: $1.25

[Racketeer]

You can take it. I'd like it better in position but still you are getting excellent implied odds plus if you're confident that you can read him correctly and bluff on him once in a while this has to be +EV.

[blackize]

Well his range is pretty narrow, so he shouldn't be terribly hard to read. I've seen him play JJ like that UTG once but I'm not sure how capable of folding an overpair he is. I don't think bluff equity is too much of a consideration here.

I guess the real question is, how much do I have to make from him on average everytime I flop 2pair or better or hit a draw? Keep in mind that his Cbet % is low so I may get some free cards.

[lynxman73]

Who likes an open shove with AA here?

[blackize]

4% isn't quite tight enough to make that optimal. I've 3bet him before and he has folded preflop.

[BobboFitos]

nope

[CaptVimes]

Your getting good odds and I think his hand is pretty plain. AA-JJ, maybe TT, and AK. As long as your going to either hit or go home I might call this. Against a real raise I fold though. Is villian positionally aware? Do you think you will get paid off at all aside from another small bet on the flop?

[Sir Winalot]

Blacksize, you're oop so it'll be very hard to get money out of him postflop even if his range is very narrow and you won't hit the flop hard very often.

[ QUOTE ]
Who likes an open shove with AA here?

[/ QUOTE ]
I wan't the same stuff you took.