Pirateboy's NCAAF Conquest - Week 9

pirateboy · #1 10-22-2006, 06:56 PM

Three early lines jumped out to me at CRIS. All these are 5 unit plays!

YTD: 63-54-2 +17.9units

Tennessee (-6) @ South Carolina [opened at -3.5 at Pinny, but no account for me; opened at -5, but by the time I had my bet in, it moved to -6]

Kentucky (+2.5) @ Mississippi State
--WHAT?! Kentucky should be a 3-5 point favorite here.

Connecticut @ Rutgers (-16.5)
--Another UConn vs. running team fade. UConn has nothing left after last week's game which they probably consider their game of the year. Rutgers run defense is FO SHO!

pirateboy · #2 10-24-2006, 05:35 PM

Added for 1 unit:

Nebraska (-5.5) @ Oklahoma State

I know Nebraska is coming off an emotional loss and they have Missouri next week. However, Oklahoma State is NOT GOOD. They have 3 D-1A wins: FAU, Arkansas State, and Kansas. They've lost by an average of 4 points to to the 3 teams who were better than them. Nebraska is the BEST team Okie State has seen thus far, and the Cowboys have Texas after Nebraska.

Nebraska has a pretty weak pass D which doesn't fare well against a solid pass O over in Stillwater. However, Okie State won't be able to rush very well against the Huskers, and I think Nebraska's overall talent will easily win this one by a touchdown. EASILY.

pirateboy · #3 10-24-2006, 09:13 PM

Added for 2 units:

BYU (-7.5) -104 @ Air Force

Your Mom · #4 10-24-2006, 10:26 PM

Nebraksa should really control this game on the ground as they have in past road affairs vs. similar teams in Iowa St. and Kansas St.

pirateboy · #5 10-26-2006, 08:07 PM

Added:

Wake Forest (-8.5) @ North Carolina 1 unit
--North Carolina is reaaaaalllllly bad. They don't have the leadership or guts to play their hearts out after their coach has been fired. Wake, while not playing a strong schedule, is playing for a chance to make a nice bowl for themselves. I think they'll come out motivated in the rivalry game and beat the Tarheels by 2 TDs.

Florida State @ Maryland (+4.5) 1 unit
--Honestly, a day later, I don't know why I picked this entirely. I mean, I haven't done a ton of research on it, but I know in the very simplest of analysis that it makes sense. Maryland is playing better than they did last year (5-2 currently) and they play a Florida State team in disarray. I can't make myself think that Bowden has the same ability to fire his team up ... not compared to 10 years ago. I jumped quickly because of the importance of 4.5.

Northwestern @ Michigan U47 5 units!
--The analysis on MT2R's thread sums up why I played this. Northwesten won't see more than 10 points here, and I think 3 or 6 is far more likely. Once Michigan is up 21-0, 24-0 something ... the backups come in and we see a 31-3 final or thereabouts.

Vanderbilt (-9) @ Duke 1 unit
--Yeah, Duke played Miami and Alabama close. Miami played them after the FIU deal and before Georgia Tech. Alabama played them before Ole Miss. Duke was never the focus for either team. Granted, give them credit, they REALLY kept it close. However, Vanderbilt still has a slight chance for a BOWL and the one game they can count on to help? THIS ONE! They will NEED this win and will, hopefully, pummel Duke.

Tennessee (-3.5) @ S. Carolina 2 units
--Everyone here knows I'm a UT alum. However, I know I do a great job of separating my fandom from my money. I'm 3-1 on side for Tennessee games (0-1 totals, though). Anyway, I don't understand this line. Sure, Spurrier owned Fulmer while SOS was at Florida. However, the talent isn't there! Spurrier and the [censored] beat the worst Tennessee team in 20 years last season ... by a point. Tennessee didn't look phenomenal against Alabama, but the yardage totals (359-211) tell a different story. South Carolina has faced NOBODY in terms of offense. The best team they played was Auburn who had the #59 total offense. Tennessee is in the top 20. South Carolina has the #8 pass defense, but has played a terribly weak array of pass offenses. Seriously, check it out. Only Kentucky is rated in the top ... what, 40? South Carolina is going to be completely exposed this weekend.

Sure, Spurrier is the coach. It's in Columbia. Those are people's worries. Guess what? Those are the ONLY worries. Tennessee's defense is actually ranked BETTER than Auburn's! Auburn held South Carolina (in their BEST offensive night of the year) to 17 points. Tennessee will keep SC in that range. Do you think the Vols will score on a very weak D? Absolutely.

sshan83 · #6 10-26-2006, 08:34 PM

I have been paying attention to your picks all season and I know you think you don't get a lot of readership, but you do. I like the above 4 picks.

sshan83 · #7 10-26-2006, 08:35 PM

5 picks.

pirateboy · #8 10-26-2006, 09:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have been paying attention to your picks all season and I know you think you don't get a lot of readership, but you do. I like the above 4 picks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks man, I really appreciate that. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

iggymcfly · #9 10-27-2006, 12:34 AM

I don't think it's just Spurrier. South Carolina's a young team that's been improving a lot over the course of the year on defense, at QB, and on the offensive line. That Auburn game was the first one where they started to gell and since then, they've got two SEC road wins, including a 31-13 win over Vanderbilt. (I know Vandy's not great, but 18 points on the road's still pretty good.) On Sunday morning, I was anticipating that I'd be all over SC at something like +7.5, but when they opened at +4, I couldn't do it. I can't really argue that Tennessee's the wrong side at -3.5, but I can definitely see the other side of the argument.

pirateboy · #10 10-27-2006, 09:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's just Spurrier. South Carolina's a young team that's been improving a lot over the course of the year on defense, at QB, and on the offensive line. That Auburn game was the first one where they started to gell and since then, they've got two SEC road wins, including a 31-13 win over Vanderbilt. (I know Vandy's not great, but 18 points on the road's still pretty good.) On Sunday morning, I was anticipating that I'd be all over SC at something like +7.5, but when they opened at +4, I couldn't do it. I can't really argue that Tennessee's the wrong side at -3.5, but I can definitely see the other side of the argument.

[/ QUOTE ]

South Carolina has improved for sure. However, their run defense is incredibly porous, and Tennessee has the ball carriers to rack up 150+ yards on the ground. Add that to the best passing game in the SEC and you have a team that should score 30+ on Saturday. South Carolina put 0 on Georgia (without Newton, though) and 17 on Auburn. Tennessee's defense is as good or a tiny smidge better than those 2. I could see a 30-20, 28-17 type thing, or hell, now that I have -3.5 AND -6, I might win just one of the bets.