NL$3/$5 Live hand

[bilbo-san]

I know, MSNL, blah blah blah. The regulars at this casino couldn't beat NL25 on party, so you're all qualified to comment on this one.

NL$3/$5, the game has a $200 buyin cap. I'm at $175, because I didn't get a chance to rebuy before the insanely fast dealer had the cards in the air.

Hero has Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in thd SB.

UTG limps, MP limps, Button limps, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets $15, BB calls, UTG calls, LP calls, Button folds.

BB is a regular who is too loose (pre and post-flop), but sort of knows enough about poker to get himself in trouble; has read some books, knows enough to bet significant amounts, understands pot odds, etc. I put him on any 7, T, Q or draw.

UTG is a regular who is a very weak-tight-passive regular. He calls too much when he should raise or fold. Has good pre-flop hand selection but isn't very good post-flop. He probably has a good Q, although he could have a draw.

MP is a player I am not familiar with. Seems too loose based on VPiP but I've only been at the table a couple of orbits. Given the odds he's getting he could have all kinds of hands, I'm guessing.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I hate this card, but I think I need to bet because a club draw is still much more likely than KJ or J8.

Hero....?

[Keyser.]

$85 in the pot and you've got $95 behind? Just shove I guess.

[Claunchy]

$200 buyin = SSNL anyway.

This seems like an obvious value bet to me. This shallow, you should pretty much always be willing to get it all in w/ top 2.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
$85 in the pot and you've got $95 behind? Just shove I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have $155 behind.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
$200 buyin = SSNL anyway.

This seems like an obvious value bet to me. This shallow, you should pretty much always be willing to get it all in w/ top 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop, of course -- I would have pushed over any raise.

The turn card does change things.

But even if we accept your argument that we are always ahead, the question isn't (only) whether or not I have the best hand -- it's whether betting or checking has higher EV.

[Keyser.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$85 in the pot and you've got $95 behind? Just shove I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have $155 behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoops. That's a pretty awkward stack. If you're pretty sure someone will bet then I guess CRAI (c/c doesn't make a lot of sense to me in this spot). I'm fine with leading 3/4-->PSB too.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$85 in the pot and you've got $95 behind? Just shove I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have $155 behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoops. That's a pretty awkward stack. If you're pretty sure someone will bet then I guess CRAI (c/c doesn't make a lot of sense to me in this spot). I'm fine with leading 3/4-->PSB too.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK.

Hero led for $60.

UTG called $60 out of turn. Then BB said, "It's my turn" and made it $120.

UTG folded, LP folded.

I thought to myself "If BB has KJ or J8 and knew UTG was calling, he'd be an idiot to raise", and I pushed (BB had to call $35 more).

Is my reasoning sound?

[orange]

I would just shove the turn. Given stack sizes, I would never get rid of this hand after the flop, ever. A bit of an overbet, but players live are never folding something like AQ, ever. 3/4 pot is okay, though leaves for REALLY awkward stack sizes by the river, with or without that [censored] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or whatever that comes.

[Nielsio]

I think you should check-raise the flop.

[AAismyfriend]

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I think you should check-raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, i also like a bigger lead, like 25ish as this is such a drawy board.