Pirateboy's NCAAF Conquest - Week 8

[pirateboy]

I opened an account at CRIS weeks ago and forgot about it. So now I can jump on lines a day early.

<u>All 5 unit plays</u>

Wisconsin (-5) @ Purdue

West Virginia (-19.5) @ Connecticut

Texas (-6.5) @ Nebraska

Boston College (+4.5) @ Florida State

Tulsa (-12) @ Memphis

A lot of other lines I'm eyeing. I really need a Pinny account.

[pirateboy]

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West Virginia (-19.5) @ Connecticut


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So, Connecticut had a nice little win against Army last week, which might be why this line is so low. "SO LOW?!" you ask? The Huskies allow 177.2 rushing yards per game, which is 106th in D-1A football. Navy beat the Huskies by 24 when they ran 464 yards. While the Mountaineers won't rack up 464, they have the passing game that at least can keep UConn a little off balance at times. Navy didn't have that.

West Virginia's defensive weakness is their pass D, which ranks 75th in the country. EVEN BETTER! Connecticut's pass O ranks 106th in the nation. So, the Huskies will not be able to expose that flaw in the Eers game.

UConn does rank 9th in rushing O, but WVU has a solid run D, coming in at 18th. However, it seems a little distorted because they ran for 418 on Rhode Island. WVU coaches will study what South Florida did on defense to hold the Huskies to 60 yards on the ground. And they'll find it. UConn's losses have all come when they've ran for 170 yards or less. West Virginia has the knowledge, speed, talent, and coaching to hold them to a lower number.

My ONLY worry is that with 2 run oriented teams, the clock will run and run and a 17 point victory could come out of this. Either way, WVU scores fast and I think they will want to blow everyone out with the BCS now in the public.

West Virginia 45, Connecticut 17

[pirateboy]

Apparently I get no interest from the forum, but oh well. This is fun and I'll fool myself into thinking someone reads this. All of the above bets were -110 at CRIS and 5 units. The below added bets were either at Mansion Exchange or Bowman's and are ALL 1 unit.

Texas Tech (-2.5) -107 @ Iowa State

Alabama @ Tennessee (-10.5) -105
--I was going to play this at -12, and it got better. If this thing drops to 9.5 or lower, I'm tripling up

Miami (-17.5) -110 @ Duke
--Are you kidding me? Miami's 3rd team would beat Duke by 18. The suspensions won't matter. This opened at 23.5 or something like that.

Oregon (-3.5) -110 @ Washington State
--You can get the same line @ Mansion for -107 or so, but I forgot to check it at first. Wanted to see -3 or -2.5, but wanted to go ahead and get a unit at this price before it possibly goes against me.

[BobJoeJim]

I've talked about Oregon elsewhere, I like it with strong reservations, I'll be all over it if I get that last half point to move onto the 3.

I love the Texas Tech play. A lot. If I did a POTW it would likely be TT.

Your thread gets reads, I just haven't had many feelings on most of your plays [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[iggymcfly]

I'm usually discussing most of your plays in my thread, so that's why I don't post here very often, but I always read it, and it's always nice to see a winning bettor out there agreeing with any one of my picks. I'm already on 5 of your 8 picks this week, and was considering two others, (Texas and BC), so I certainly like your selections.

[smbruin22]

pirateboy, i read and like your stuff (in fact, i'm always going back a number of pages to find it after the games are over)

[pirateboy]

I've really been trying lately to nail down which conferences I've been doing well with and which ones I've been doing poorly. I also have been focusing on whether I overvalue road faves.

Either way, I'm eyeing these lines now, but may wait a few days:

Mich State (-7) @ Northwestern
MTSU (-4) @ Louisiana Monroe
Hawaii @ New Mexico State (+18.5) and the OVER 72 or whatever it is

We'll see though.

[JPT III]

I like reading your stuff too. What's your year to date record/units?

[pirateboy]

Oh right, I forgot!

Rough week last week going 7-9-1.

YTD: 54-44-2 +9 units

[Jibba]

I really like Oregon and BC this week. No way FS should be giving points on the road right now to a ranked team. Also really like Tennessee and want to jump all over Texas, but I've been having second thoughts after reading up a bit on the matchup.