20/40 Hi - Back to Basics: Is it worth betting into a small pot?

[PoorLawyer]

I probably have the best hand, but there is no money in the pot, and villain's check with the 8s seemed odd. Is it just easiest/safest to check it down here?

7 Card Stud High ($20/$40), Ante $2, Bring-In $5 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.60 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in
Seat 6: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (1.35 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 3: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks
Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks

5th Street - (0.68 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 3: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks
Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks

6th Street - (0.68 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 3: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks
Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks

River - (0.68 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___checks
Seat 3: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___checks
Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks

Total pot: (0.68 BB)

Results (in white):<font color="white">

Total pot $27 Main pot $25.75 Rake $1.25

Seat 2: [Jc 5d Qs 8c 8d 2d Th]

Seat 3: [7s 5h 7c 3d 6d Qd 9h]

Hero: [9s 9c 4h 4d As 8s 2s] (Two Pairs, Nines and Fours, Ace high)

</font>

[adanthar]

How is this game playing? Does this call rather than raise on third pretty much mean a 3 flush or small pair?

If it generally means a 3 flush and they fold bricks in small pots, I bet fourth. I definitely bet sixth and fold Seat 3's random hole diamond if nothing else.

[BeerMoney]

Why not bet 6th?

[Bill Murphy]

[ QUOTE ]

Why not bet 4th ?

[/ QUOTE ]

[dsaxton]

I would definitely bet 4th and expect to win the pot. I also don't understand the 6th street check. Your hand is basically always good here.

[frappeboy]

[ QUOTE ]
I would definitely bet 4th and expect to win the pot. I also don't understand the 6th street check. Your hand is basically always good here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree but the fact that you have the best hand here something like 90-95% of the time doesn't necessarily make a bet correct.

Basically by betting you are guarding against someone outdrawing you. At this point you probably have an 80% chance of winning this pot when you're ahead if you just check down. That means you win an extra 20% of the time by betting. Since the pot is about .66BB or $26, by betting you basically make $5 instead of checking the times you are ahead. If your opponent was slowplaying something big you are giving away a full $40 by betting, so you need to have the best hand 8 out of 9 times for a bet to be correct.

Of course I'm assuming you get outdrawn 20% of the time here, which may or may not be true. The higher chance of you getting outdrawn if you check the more likely you should bet to protect the hand.

Also, by checking you may give yourself an opportunity to win 1 or more BB on the river if you and your opponent catches perfect. For instance let's say you catch a 9 on the river and your opponent makes trip 8s. It will be very hard for him to fold even though there is so little in the pot. Another factor that needs to be considered is the potential to get bluffed out when checking on 6th/7th when you are ahead. I don't think this will happen often with the pot being so small.

Anyways I think it's a close call, and probably doesn't matter that much one way or the other. I think betting in this specific situation might be a little bit better than checking, but not if you plan on putting any more money in if you get raised or called on 6th and then bet into on the river.

[frappeboy]

One more point I forgot to add:

If your opponents are really loose/bad players, this becomes a clear bet, since they may call you even when they are behind so you make more money than just protecting what's in there.

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
How is this game playing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Seat 8 is the big donk, though not involved in the hand. Seat 3 is loose-passive at low limits. i have never seen him play this high, but he was playing noticibly tighter than at smaller games.
Seat 2 is a fairly solid player. My big concern here was that it didnt make much sense for him to check his open pair on 5th when nobody was really interested in the pot it seemed. It just struck me as odd and I had a feeling he may have been sitting on a big hand, hoping that somebody catches enough of something to stick around.

My thought at the time was that the pot was so small that putting in $40 to take down $26 didn't make a lot of sense.

The reason I didn't bet 4th was that I really thought there was a good chance I was behind. Seat 3 had been playing real tight but passive and I've seen him limp in with low split pairs and just check-call them down. I could almost see his split 7s.

[Wahoo73]

I had sort of a similar situation this weekend. Sorry that I don't have the hand history, so I will have to describe it.

I had pocket 55 with a J door card and called the BI. I ended up HU on 4th street with the BI who now had 3Q clubs showing. I bricked and we both checked 4th. He got another club on 5th and I got another brick. He checked and I checked. On 6th street, I caught a third 5. He checked again. I then thought long and hard about what to do. Was he playing possum on me the whole time waiting for me to catch up so that he could trap me with his made flush, or did he really just have crap. (BTW, I had no previous experience with this player and hadn't been at table to get any read on him, so I had no idea what he was capable of.)

I almost checked since the pot was so small and figured I could just call if he bet the river, but then my ego kicked in and I bet. Sure enough, he raised.

Did I then have the discipline to lay it down? Sadly enough, no I didn't. I called the rasie and called the river bet, and of course I lost to his flush. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[cgrohman]

True, but if I still hvae 9s up on 7th and I get bet into my hand hits the muck real quick.