River bluff OOP

[Terrabon98]

Been playing at this table for a while, splashed around a decent amount earlier, and stacked villian earlier when he flopped a set against my flush. The way he playd that hand was to min c/r my flop bet, flat call my reraise, and call my turn all-in, so I don't think of him as a great player by any means.


Villian has 300, I cover, NL 2/4

Villian limps on button, I call with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] , BB Checks.


FLOP: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I lead out for 10, BB folds, Villian min-raises to 20, I call

TURN: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check, he bets 30, I call

RIVER: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I lead out for 80...

Thoughts?

[Habib Marwan]

It's good if you think he'll fold a king.

[Gugel]

yes, this looks like a king and juding by the fact that you labeled him a poor player, I don't think he's capable of laying it down.

[Requin]

nh

[Kilillan]

most fish would never fold KJ here.

which is why leading with a flush here is so profitable

[Terrabon98]

I think it's possible he could fold a king here, but at least he would fold weaker pairs (pocket ones too), ace high flush draw, etc...

I don't think he necessarily has a King here a huge majority of the time, but it's certainly possible he has weaker hands that still beat me. That was the point of the bet

[Requin]

[ QUOTE ]
most fish would never fold KJ here.

which is why leading with a flush here is so profitable

[/ QUOTE ]This bluff being profitable and leading a flush here being profitable are not mutually exclusive.

[Kilillan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
most fish would never fold KJ here.

which is why leading with a flush here is so profitable

[/ QUOTE ]This bluff being profitable and leading a flush here being profitable are not mutually exclusive.

[/ QUOTE ]

eh

[Requin]

Just for simplicity lets assume a made flush is the nuts, I know its not exact but whatever. We called 30 on turn, pot after call is 112. So we need to make about 40 bucks on average to make calling the turn profitable with a FD. If villain calls our 80$ bet 1/2 the time when we have a flush we come out ahead. If villain calls 1/2 the time when we bluff we come out ahead also. So playing a flush this way and playing a bluff this way can both be profitable lines.
Edit: I just realized I forgot to factor in the lost money from turn call for bluff profitability, but it doesn't cost us 30$ on turn, it costs us less in the long run since we have a straight draw and will get paid sometimes... I'm not a math guy so I'm won't get further into it, but it can certainly be the case that playing this hand this way and playing a flush this way can both be profitable.

[lawloser]

This is a line I like, but vs the villan described expect a call from any K.