Big draw on turn vs tag

[Profish2285]

Villain runs at 19/10/1.4. Im assuming he has a pretty big hand here as he is fairly nitty and not aggro. This makes me want to call the turn so much more because it leads me to believe I get his stack if I hit. Thoughts?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($68.30)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($59.10)</font>
UTG ($18.40)
MP ($59.55)
<font color="#C00000">CO ($45.30)</font>
Hero ($49.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1.25.

Flop: ($3.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $5</font>, Hero calls $2.50.

Turn: ($13.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $13.75</font>, Hero....

[EMc]

He has like TT or 33 here almost always. Do some math to figure out if you will get paid enough if you hit, cause hes not folding. There is still like 30 behind after this call, right? So esstentially we are risking 14 to make 44, gorilla math makes this real close to 3-1, we are v close that to hit. However, we should probably discount this at teh percentage you think he will fold the river.

If you are OOP here I think I will fold however, as the certainity of making that extra isnt there. IP I probably call.

[HighOctane]

I would call. If your read is right, you will get paid off. You are getting great implied odds - so call. You have little fold equity based on your read.

[sean457j]

Since you bet the flop - the villain may discount possible straights on the river, also the backdoor flush draw is well hidden. Because you will be in position on the river it is more likely that you will get some payoff if either of your draws hit. Therefore, I think, you have enough implied odds + pot odds to call the turn bet.

[Profish2285]

Im about 99% sure I get paid if I hit as the bdfd is so hidden like has been said. I guess it comes down to the math, but I suck at that part. Actually, this looks pretty close but it leans towards a fold.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

264 games 0.025 secs 10,560 games/sec

Board: 3s Td Qc 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.545% 29.55% 00.00% 78 0.00 { KcJc }
Hand 1: 70.455% 70.45% 00.00% 186 0.00 { TT, 33 }


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[sean457j]

If you are the lesser half of 70:30 to win the hand, then you are a 2.33:1 underdog to win on the river. At this point in the hand you need to call a bet of $13.75 (pot is $27.50) to see the river. Therefore you only need to win a minimum of $4.59 (($13.75 x 2.33) - $27.50) on the river to make this a profitable hand. Since the pot will be $41.25 on the river - it is very hard to see the villain not calling, or making a bet, well above this value.

If I have gotten the math right then I think you will show a +EV calling this bet.

[ajmargarine]

Rethink your math. Or think about the math, heh.

You are getting immediate 2:1 odds on your $14. You are a 2.3:1 dog against the worst of his range. You think you'll get paid off if you hit.

Think it over again plz.

[Profish2285]

BTW, this is why I suck at the math. I see what youre saying, thanks guys for the help.