400NL - NFD in 3bet pot, deep

[willw9]

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The pot on the river will be ~600 with $500 behind. I wonder if betting a little less and pushing river for closer to a pot size bet is better when we miss?

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Think about what we're representing.. would we push an overpair when the river bricks?

I think I'd check this turn, don't hate a bet though.

and btw, hand nr 1 is an easy check behind imo.

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Unless he is a total moneky, he won't stack off 200bb's deep with an overpair often. A big bet on both turn and then river push will also make QQ fold, and a high percent of the time KK (I think) and even AA a far from insignificant per cent of the time. If you have AA here and someone gets 200bb's in, you will be thinking 'wtf ... who does this with less than AA?'). And on top of that, he has no flush re-draws, so he may well fold turn a lot of the time too.


NB. I could be way way off ... just speculating.

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Definetely agree with this, although I think we could find a more ideal villain to do this against. However, I think 3barreling is still the way to go.

As played, I bet $180, and he CRAI. I was like really really confused but had to fold. I guess it was something like T9s.

[AAismyfriend]

I think an important thing to factor in here is how you would play an overpair in this spot...or a T. If I'm villain in this hand, my thinking would be that you would probably check back a T on this flop, and that you would almost always check an overpair on the turn. I still like the turn bet if he's weak, but if he's good/aggro/capable of hand reading, I like checking back the turn here for sure.